The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid released its February report on enrollment in Medicare Advantage yesterday. On a MoM% and YoY% basis enrollment decelerated to 1.4% and 8.7% respectively. On a YoY% basis eligible beneficiaries improved slightly to 1.8% from 1.6% in January. Consistent with past years, you can expect 0.30% MoM growth as people age into Medicare and select a plan.
What should concern the pure play MA MCOs is the penetration rate. Medicare advantage enrollment is now 45.7% of all eligible beneficiaries. The HHS Office of the Actuary predicts total penetration of 49.2% in 2030. If they are right, and they usually are, the proliferation of plans attracted by the rich reimbursement and shoddy oversight are going to have to consolidate or choose a new line of work.
These data are available in chartbook form for each plan and sponsor. Send me a note if that will help with your work.
Call with questions.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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