Trendspotting: Sports Betting on the Rise

NewsWire: 1/29/22

• 18% of U.S. adults say they bet on sports at least once a month. This has risen from 10% last year and is mostly concentrated among those age 44 and younger. (Morning Consult)
  
• NH: You aren't alone if you're planning to bet on the Super Bowl. According to a December Morning Consult poll, 18% of Americans ages 21+ said they gamble on sports “at least once a month.” That's a whopping +80% YoY increase. 

• Americans under 45 are the most likely to bet. 28% of those ages 21-34 and 31% of those ages 35-44 gamble on sports at least once a month. Only 10% of those ages 50-64 and 5% of those ages 65+ say the same thing. 
• So why has sports gambling increased? The biggest reason is that more states have legalized it. In 2021, 6 states legalized sports betting, and 11 states launched new betting platforms. The industry has also amped up its marketing. The Information estimates that sports betting companies spent $1.2B in ads in 2021.
• The surge in betting among risk-averse Millennials may seem like a surprise. But let's face it: Stratospheric valuation multiples, negative real rates, debt pyramiding, and the Fed backup guarantee make pretty much any risk seem tame nowadays. After the stampede into junk bonds, SPACs, crypto, NFTs, and meme stocks, is betting on a sports score really so over the top?  
• Most of these young gamblers aren’t putting up a lot of money. 29% bet $10 or less on a game. And 47% bet $25 or less. Here is one way young people without much money can get in on the speculative frenzy. Besides, many Millennials don’t see sports gambling as a flip of the coin. Armed with the right data, they believe they can come out on top. (See “How to Make Millennials Interested in Sports Media.”)
• One big question posed by the current trajectory of the markets--and of Fed policy--is this. Will gambling suffer along with other speculative investment flows if the market continues to move in a bearish direction?

DID YOU KNOW?

• Most Americans Expect to Live with Covid-19. With the arrival of the Omicron variant, Americans have increased their precautionary measures. According to a new AP-NORC poll, people are more likely now than in December 2021 to say that they always or often avoid non-essential travel (60%, up +7 percentage points), wear face masks when around others (65%, up +8 percentage points), and stay away from large groups (64%, up +8 percentage points). These levels of precaution are the highest since last spring, before most Americans were fully vaccinated. Yet even as people step up their efforts to protect themselves, comparatively lower shares think it is essential to be vaccinated (59%) or to get a booster shot (47%) in order to feel safe being in public. Few believe the virus is going anywhere: Just 15% of Americans say they will consider the pandemic over “when Covid-19 is largely eliminated.” The vast majority (83%) say they’ll feel it’s over when it is a mild illness.