Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by REITs analyst Rob Simone.
Right now is the exact time to NOT TAKE A CERTAIN SHOT and pass the ball, puck or whatever you are playing with. Wayne Gretzky would never have gotten close to that accomplishment without a keen awareness of when someone else was in a better position to score, along with possessing the humility to let it happen. To be clear, the MATH and my time with REITs lead me to believe that we are going to wake up in a decade and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) will be a top-15, perhaps a top-10 component of the XLRE. The stock is on sale here in the grand scheme of things. I just came across Radius Global Infrastructure (RADI) and wish I could own it (I can’t, so that you guys can).
But you know what? It doesn’t matter here, because it's #Quad 4. And any shot I take here on those names is OBJECTIVELY likely to be a miss, waste my team’s time, and waste your time. AMH because of the signal, RADI because of its size, leverage and probably a million other reasons. So I am passing the puck and preparing for the next shift when they will work, and for now let’s focus on what does tend to work (at least relatively) in REITs in #Quad 4. We have talked about this before, but in terms of median returns focus in on the Towers, Data Centers, larger-cap Triple-Net (NNN) and Retail. Apartments (AVB) and Industrial (PLD, REXR), aren’t too shabby either…