“No one wins alone.”
- Mark Messier
That’s the title of Mark Messier’s recent Memoir. He’s one of the greatest leaders to ever play the other game I love. Like Mess, I’m just a Mucker who grew up fighting boys and chasing girls in a “small town” in Canada.
In my wildest dreams, I would have never thought that some people would actually want to read what I write, never mind act on a risk management process that I’d ultimately create.
From getting an “un-grade-able” on my first attempt at an English Lit paper as a freshman at Yale in the 1990s, to making another #Quad4 Stock Market Crash call it is, I guess. I appreciate you taking the time to pay attention to the #process.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Like The Mess, the Mucker (that’s a little t on The and a capital M, not an F) doesn’t win alone. If I am right on the Fed raising rates into a DEEP #Quad4 in Q2 slowdown, many money managers are going to lose.
I don’t wake up with a smile on my face thinking about that. It is what it is though. It’s part of The Game.
If we do win, we win alongside all of you who follow the #process that we built, as a team. If there’s one thing that Messier hammers home in telling his stories about winning many Stanley Cups, it’s all about his teammates and the team.
On that score, here’s a note from an awesome Hedgeye teammate who runs our Media team, Dan Holland:
You're invited to join my teammates, our special investing guests, and me at Hedgeye Live (our 1st annual Subscriber Conference). This special event promises to be a truly memorable, actionable and educational weekend for #HedgeyeNation. If you haven't bought your ticket yet, you can learn all about what's in store and get your ticket at the Hedgeye Live website.
Back to US Stock Market Crash Conditions Rising… Why?
A: Because many US stocks have already been crashing.
And a major Index (the Russell 2000) is about to do what my #VASP (Volatility Adjusted Signaling Process) already told you it was going to probably do: #crash.
For those of you who are getting this note free this morning (we gave a 1-day All-Access Pass to The People so they can at least consider preserving and protecting their hard earned capital at a particularly important time in The Cycle):
A) We thought Small Caps and Story Stocks would continue to crash if the Fed made a Policy Mistake (they did)
B) We still think our former #Quad2 Longs (including Small Caps!) like Bitcoin and Ethereum will keep crashing
C) The VASP Signal is suggesting that the NASDAQ is the next major index to crash
What is a crash? It’s when something goes down -20% from its Cycle Peak and you need to be up +25%, from there, to get your money back to break-even.
In going on 15 years of playing on this Hedgeye team we have never been on the wrong side of a #Quad4 US stock market crash call. Again, we’re not hosting parties about that – but we’re damn proud of it.
On the “why”, it doesn’t really matter this morning. What mattered was making this call before it started happening. Unlike the Perma Bears and their ad-rev clickbait, we were bullish on SPY up until January 5th, then started pivoting.
If you missed what I wrote and said (on The Macro Show) every day since, that’s ok. Here’s your opportunity…
As Messier and any leader who has won at the highest level of his or her profession will remind you, you always have opportunities in life to be a better version of who you were.
You either learn from your losses or you don’t. You either evolve your process or you lose again. Winning at the highest level of this game now requires you to be Macro Aware of The Quads and The Signals that front-run them.
Until it isn’t, it’s just a better process, and a better way. Thank you for joining our #HedgeyeNation community.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets:
UST 10yr Yield 1.68-1.91% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 0.90-1.15% (bullish)
SPX 4 (bearish)
NASDAQ 13,170-14,708 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 147-162 (bearish)
Housing (ITB) 65.10-75.28 (bearish)
REITS (XLRE) 45.02-48.42 (bearish)
Consumer Staples (XLP) 73.75-77.55 (bullish)
Utilities (XLU) 65.31-70.52 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 3 (bearish)
Nikkei 26,080-27,989 (bearish)
DAX 14,930-15,715 (bearish)
VIX 21.89-36.88 (bullish)
USD 94.86-96.81 (bullish)
EUR/USD 1.117-1.143 (bearish)
USD/YEN 113.61-115.80 (bullish)
GBP/USD 1.325-1.361 (bearish)
CAD/USD 0.777-0.802 (bearish)
USD/CHF 0.911-0.928 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 80.61-87.95 (bullish)
Nat Gas 3.49-4.46 (bearish)
Gold 1 (bullish)
Copper 4.33-4.61 (neutral)
MSFT 287-312 (bearish)
AAPL 154-171 (bearish)
AMZN 2 (bearish)
FB 279-312 (bearish)
GOOGL 2 (bearish)
NFLX 311-444 (bearish)
TSLA (bearish)
Bitcoin 32,805-41,059 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
