A common narrative, repeated often for the last 20 years, is that 10k people age into Medicare every day. This talking point can be found in every VC and PE PowerPoint pitch and has supported the bull case for Medicare Advantage plan sponsors. It is generally true. There are about 4 million 64 year-old people in the U.S., according to the 2020 census. However, on a rate of change basis, peak eligible population is expected in the next 4-5 years when the 1961-62 cohort turns 65, without adjusting for mortality. From there it is a long, slow slide into the trough that characterizes the space between boomers and millennials.
Meanwhile, new entrants, attracted by the "richness" of the program, are having to duke it out with dominant players like UNH, ANTM and HUM.
Just in time, as Washington is likely to make good on their threats to rein in the program, central bank style.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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