LIVE Q&A
We're looking at a potentially great setup for February as we work our way into the New Year. Omicron's wildfire-like spread since our last House Call (12/6) has been right on the heels of, and perhaps overlapping with, the Delta wave in some regions, and proved that even a mild[er] SARS-CoV-2 variant can be both highly disruptive and dangerous (for people and the system). Tom reviewed the Macro Quad transition (Quad 1/4), why we expect COVID-related data to improve from here, and then Tom and Will discussed several of our Position Monitor stocks (throughout the prepared comments and during the Q&A - see time stamps below). Concurrently, we're seeing the Acceleration of forward estimates hook up a bit in our screening data, which is included in the presentation materials this week (please note, our usual MicroQuads & Estimate Trend update note will resume on 1/24).
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Hedgeye House Call + Q&A | The Doctor is In | Jan 18, 12:30 PM | The '22 Re-Opening, COVID, & Labor Health Care Subscribers: CLICK HERE for event details (including video, materials links, and Q&A box)
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Topics & time Stamps
00:30 - Intro and shift to Macro Quad 4 outlook; implications for Health Care.
09:04 - MicroQuads & Estimate Revision Trend - impact of Delta then labor and Omicron (where we are now and why 1Q22 might not look good); MicroQuad bins (13:31)
17:37 - One Medical (ONEM) provider tracker - ability to hire and retain clinicians
20:45 - COVID-19 Trends Update (Inpatient vs. ICU, Inpatient Utilization)
22:29 - Labor update - demand, critical staffing levels, psych hospitals (AMN, ACHC)
25:50 - GoodRx (GDRX) Google Trend update & PCE trends
27:46 - Teladoc (TDOC), BetterHelp app data
29:02 - Quest Diagnostics (DGX) update
30:42 - Q&A
- 30:48 - ONEM: PODs vs. Quads, OSH and CANO, cohorts, etc.
- 37:46 - LFST: update & outlook (importance of hiring clinicians)
- 41:00 - ACHC: update, recent M&A
- 44:55 - ATIP: update, hiring trend "OK" into year's end '21, no change to thesis
- 48:21 - ACHC: why behavioral is a better short than acute care
- 49:20 - DGX: potential to flip back to long later this year
As always, all data available upon request, and reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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