Global Consumer Performance
Consumer Staples Quad 4 Themes Call
On January 19 at 2:30 PM ET we will hold our Consumer Staples Theme Call. The Hedgeye Macro team is calling for Quad 4, the quad that Consumer Staples outperforms in. The headwinds appear to outnumber the tailwinds, margins are under pressure, and the top line looks more likely to disappoint. Despite those concerns, we are constructive on the sector. We will explain the repositioning of our investment longs and shorts.
We will also do a deep dive into our investment themes for the sector including:
- Inflation
- Price increases
- Wage pressure
- Plant-based food
- Media spend
- COVID-19 peak
- At-home food consumption peak
- Grocery e-commerce
- Government transfer payments
- Supply chain challenges
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BROS VS SBUX VS DNKN
In Q1 2020, only 3.3% of Starbucks California visitors and only 3.6% of Dunkin’ California visitors visited a Dutch Bros. But by Q4 2021, that percentage grew to 5.4% and 5.8%, respectively. But despite the increase in Starbucks and Dunkin’ customers visiting Dutch Bros., Starbucks and Dunkin’s customer loyalty has not suffered. Location analytics show that following a slight decline at the beginning of COVID, the average number of visits per visitor for these two chains has now returned to pre-pandemic levels. The increase in Dutch Bros. visits has not harmed the other coffee leaders indicates that this is a robust market with room at the top for several players and that a consistently diverse coffee mix is often the preference for many visitors.
