communications themes 1Q22
We hope you can join us for our 1Q22 themes presentation on Tuesday, January 18th at 10:00 am ET. We will review the major trends underpinning the internet, media, and cable/telecom space across multiple durations. We will also discuss our positioning, top ideas heading into earnings season, and new ideas we have in the hopper. More importantly, we will run through the latest data updates that help us measure and map the industry. We will contextualize the data with field notes from our conversations with advertising agencies and brands.
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In our 4Q21 (October) themes presentation, we previewed the slowdown in digital advertising spend and volatile engagement trends that resulted in multiple compression for the group. We also flagged continued risk to cable broadband estimates with growing competition from fixed wireless and fiber. In Media, we saw a risk to Disney+ subscriber estimates, Netflix starting to claw back its share of engagement as production ramps back up and improving MAU trends at Spotify.
On Tuesday's call, we will run through the roadmap for 2022 (timing, catalysts, drivers) - including the potential for a 2H inflection in growth and where we see risks/opportunities both long and short.
KEY TOPICS AND ANALYSIS
- Internet (FB, TWTR, SNAP, PINS, GOOGL, #TikTok)
- Macro trends (retail sales, e-commerce, GDP, etc.)
- Advertising spend by channel
- IDFA/ATT Impact and iOS 14.5
- Searching for a bottom...
- Digital ad-pricing trends
- Brand vs. performance
- User growth and engagement trends
- Estimate revision trends/valuation
- Style-factors and #Quad backtests
- Agency field notes
- Media (NFLX, DIS, ROKU, VIAC, DISCA, SPOT, LYV)
- Tracking OTT service adoption and awareness
- International streaming launches
- Growing content budgets
- OTT platform tracker (ROKU/AMZN) + net promoter score
- Netflix-tracker update - with QTD trends through 1/16
- Original content production tracker (by streaming service)
- Linear-TV / CTV advertising trends + cord-cutting
- Tracking the return of live entertainment (Ticketmaster tracker)*
- Tracking Spotify streaming hours and podcast performance*
- Style-factors and #Quad backtests
- Cable/Telecom (CHTR, ATUS, CMCSA, FYBR, T, VZ)
- Tracking broadband adoption (Fiber / copper / cable / fixed wireless)
- Market share trends (post/prepaid and MVNO)
- Better Business Bureau (BBB) review tracker (Cable/telco)*
- Employee review and NPS tracker*
- Downdetector.com tracker*
- Style-factors and #Quad backtests
*Data available upon request
Please call or e-mail with any questions.
Andrew Freedman, CFA
Managing Director
@HedgeyeComm
