NewsWire: 1/13/22
- Between October 2020 and February 2021, an estimated 60K births went “missing” due to the pandemic. According to a new analysis, states with more Covid cases per capita and higher unemployment rates tended to have bigger reductions in births. (Brookings Institution)
- NH: Since the pandemic began, we have covered the “pandemic baby bust.” (See "More Evidence Confirms 2020 Birth Decline.") And according to a new analysis by the Brookings Institution, there was a shortfall of 60K births between October 2020 and February 2021.
- Brookings bases its analysis on national monthly birth data ending in June 2021. Researchers compared actual births to predicted numbers derived from pre-pandemic years (2016-2019). Counting back 9 months, they were able to discern patterns of conception.
- So what did they find?
- According to the data, there were statistically significant declines in conceptions between February and April 2020. The declines in March and April undoubtedly reflect the first wave of Covid-19 deaths. By May and June, conceptions roughly returned to pre-pandemic levels. This corresponds with declining deaths in the latter half of spring 2020.
- Brookings was also able to assess the magnitude of birth declines by mothers' education level, age, and number of previous births.
- Education Level: Women with master’s and doctoral degrees experienced the largest decline in births. And the less educated weren’t as affected. Why? Perhaps the higher educated were more sensitive to the dangers of Covid-19. And the less educated were more likely to be unemployed and supported by UI benefits. They had more time and money than ever to start a family.
- Age: Teens and women over 35 experienced the largest declines. For teenagers, everything shut down, and they didn’t have a chance to socialize. For older women, Covid-19 is more of a risk. And I suspect they didn’t want to interact with medical staff at a time of high infections and no vaccines.
- Number of Births: Women who had already given birth experienced larger declines than new moms. I suspect this is due to first-time mothers being more eager to have a child. And those who already have children were occupied with at-home learning and childcare. Having a newborn would only add to the stress.
- Looking into the future, we suspect the pandemic baby bust will continue in waves. When infections and deaths are high, births will drop nine months later. But when infections and deaths are low, there will be a rebound. I expect there was a drop in births around September and October 2021, nine months after the wave that peaked in January 2021. We will keep you updated when these birth numbers are published.
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