2022 Themes Call at 10 am today
CLICK HERE at the time of the event for the live webcast and materials.
SHAK's LAST GASP
1Q22 will see a slowdown, and then comparisons in 2Q22, and the rest of the year get very challenging
Shake Shack (SHAK) ripped yesterday after guiding Q4 revenue $203.3M vs. $198.1M consensus and comparable sales growth of +20.8% vs. +17.0% consensus. Average weekly sales rose to $74K from $72K in 3Q21. Licensing revenue in Q4 increased 46.8% compared to growth of 68.3% in 3Q21. Despite the strong guidance update, there was some caution from the restaurant operator on near-term staffing issues.
"While we are pleased by the fourth quarter, we also saw our operating hours drop in the last week of FY21 and the first two weeks of FY22 as a sharp increase in COVID cases had an impact on our ability to staff and keep all of our restaurants fully open. We expect these trends to continue to impact sales in our Company-owned Shacks and our licensed business."
BROS SHINES AT ICR
BROS preannounced 4Q21 system and company comps of 10.1% and 11.5% that far surpassed the low single-digit expectations for both segments. The company also upped updated 2022 store development guidance. BROS' is positioned to continue executing on the path to high return 4,000 U.S. locations. The continued focus on the digital business will be a crucial part of the more holistic strategy to drive thru-put at BROS.
CHEF is a LONG
Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) has provided a preliminary outlook for full-year 2022, expecting net sales between $2.1B and $2.2B; gross profit between $494M and $517M; and adj. EBITDA between $99M and $111M.
DPZ UPS Inflation EXPECTATIONS
DPZ is a LONG
At ICR, DPZ said higher food costs due to record inflation levels had forced it to scale back some of its promotional offers for 2022 in the U.S. The company said it would cut the number of chicken wings in its $7.99 carryout offer to eight pieces from 10 pieces, the first of a few changes the company is making to counter higher labor costs and prices of meats, cheese, and some grains. "We expect unprecedented increases in our food basket costs (for fiscal 2022) versus 2021 of 8% to 10%, which is 3 to 4x what we might normally see in a year," Chief Executive Officer Richard Allison said at the ICR Conference.
Domino's is also moving the offer to only its online sales channel to cut costs by not having its workers answer the phones. The DPZ news makes us nervous for WING
