Ticker: PSA
Subsector: Self-Storage
Headline: Thoughts on 4Q21 operational update
First and foremost, we view the stock and self-storage broadly NOT tanking on the first sequential decline in average contract rate to new customers in five quarters within the same store pool as BULLISH for PSA and the subsector. Checking in this morning on the signal PSA remains BULLISH TRADE/TREND/TAIL, making higher highs. With the blended average contract rate for the quarter coming in almost on top of our number, it implies much stronger ECRI amidst a lengthening average stay/lower churn, which all else the same is a stronger driver of overall growth. It also indicates that seasonality is returning to the business, as in general move-in rates are typically higher during the "busy" season (2Q/3Q) and lower during the less busy season (4Q/1Q).
Tickers: OFC, ONL, WE
Subsector: Office
Headline: Position Monitor Update
We are making a few changes to the position monitor this morning: (1) adding OFC to the Long Bench given its rate sensitivity, stable cash flow and tenant profile (similar to NNN and Industrial), longer lease duration and potential to hit relative escape velocity on earnings growth, (2) Orion Office REIT (ONL) to the Short Bench with more to come on this name, and (3) re-ordering our priority of longs/shorts including moving WE down on the Best Idea Long list following the MASSIVE relative outperformance over the last few days. Still like the name here as a long for FY22 but has picked up several hundred basis points versus the S&P, XLRE and office. It is by far the most asymmetric name on our position monitor right now.
Figure 1: Updated Hedgeye REITs Position Monitor
Source: FactSet, Hedgeye
Prior Notes:
1.5.22 - ESRT <--> PGRE: A WIN-WIN ALL AROUND? | 1.5.22 | (ESRT, PGRE)
1.4.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.4.22 | (PGRE)
1.3.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.3.22 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE, PGRE)
12.29.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.29.21 | (Position Monitor, TCN, DLR, EQIX, ELS, SUI)
12.23.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.23.21 | (AVB, CPT, EQR, MAA)
12.21.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.21.21 | (BRG, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.19.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA)
12.17.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.17.21 | (Storage, Manhattan Office)
12.16.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.16.21 | (FR)
12.15.21 - EVENT REPLAY | FIRESIDE CHAT W/ WEWORK CEO SANDEEP MATHRANI
12.14.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.14.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.12.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.12.21 | (WE)
12.11.21 - EVENT REMINDER | FIRESIDE CHAT W/ WEWORK CEO SANDEEP MATHRANI
12.10.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.10.21 | (ESRT)
12.8.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.8.21 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.7.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.7.21 | (SLG)
12.6.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.6.21 | (WE NOVEMBER OPERATIONS UPDATE)
12.5.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.5.21 | (PGRE, EGP, PLYM, MAA, CPT, O, EPR)
12.2.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.2.21 | (WE)
12.1.21 - IGNORE CNBC RE: WEWORK RESTATEMENT | 12.1.21 | (WE)
12.1.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.1.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, WE)
11.30.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.30.21 | (AMH)
11.28.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.28.21 | (COLD)
11.23.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.23.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, WE)
11.21.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.21.21 | (WE)
11.19.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.19.21 | (CUBE)
11.17.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.17.21 | (STYLE FACTOR WORK)
11.16.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.16.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
11.15.21 - CUBE ANNOUNCES STABILIZED ACQUISITION | 11.15.21
11.15.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.15.21 | (WE, ILPT)
11.14.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.14.21 | (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA)
11.11.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.11.21 | (LSI, NYC CBD OFFICE)
11.10.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.10.21 | (UHAL, CONE, COR, NSA, PSA)
11.9.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.9.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, SFR)
11.7.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.7.21 | (APARTMENT RENTAL RATE TRACKER, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
11.4.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.4.21 | AMH 3Q21 RESULTS
11.4.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.4.21 | CUBE 3Q21 RESULTS
11.4.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.4.21 | (COLD, IRM, EARNINGS SURPRISE MONITOR)
11.3.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.2.21 | (LSI, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
11.2.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.2.21 | (PSA, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
11.1.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.1.21 | PSA 3Q21 RESULTS
10.31.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.31.21 | (3Q21 EARNINGS SURPRISES, POSITION MONITOR)
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10.28.21 | CPT 3Q21 RESULTS
10.28.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.28.21 | (EXR)
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/28/21 | INVH 3Q21 RESULTS
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/27/21 | AVB 3Q21 RESULTS
10.27.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.27.21 | (3Q21 Earnings, AVB, EXR, Office)
10.26.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/26/21 | EXR 3Q21 RESULTS
10.26.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.26.21 | (EQR, REXR)
10.25.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.24.21 | (POSITION MONITOR)
10.21.21. - REIT RECAP | 10/21/21 | REXR 3Q21 RESULTS
10.20.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.20.21 | (EGP, PLYM, REXR, ILPT)
10.19.21 - VIDEO | American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) Thesis
10.19.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.19.21 | (COLD, SLG, VNO, AMH, U.S. Office Utilization)
10.18.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.18.21 | (PLD)
10.17.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.17.21 | (PLD, POSITION MONITOR)
10.15.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/15/21 | PLD 3Q21 RESULTS
10.13.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.13.21 | (PLD)
10.10.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.10.21 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
10.8.21 - BLACK BOOK ROUND-UP | AMERCO (UHAL)
10.7.21 - BEST IDEA ROUND-UP | AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST (COLD)
Please e-mail with any questions.
Rob Simone, CFA
Managing Director
Twitter: @HedgeyeREITs
