Takeaway: Updating PSA and self-storage modeling assumptions

STAT OF THE DAY: The NY Giant's kicker has accounted for 40% of the team's points this year. 40%! Just thinking through that, a middling team scoring ~25pts per game on average would usually have the kicker contributing around ~25% of total points assuming three PATs and one FG per game. This is only the second time in franchise history they have hit the 40% mark for the kicker's contribution, so we are in rarified air in terms of ineptitude. Back to the grind...

SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA) - Capture7

Ticker: PSA

Subsector: Self-Storage

Headline: We spent time this weekend updating storage estimates, including PSA

  • See Figure 1 for a summary of our modeling assumptions - in general we are looking for a broad-based continuation of well-above average SSNOI and earnings growth through 2Q22
  • We continue to like the space broadly on the long side for now, with CUBE and LSI remaining our favorites
  • There is a very clear setup for a dramatic 2H22 deceleration in the RoC on SSRev, SSNOI and Core FFO earnings growth across the sector
  • There is potential for PSA to show the strongest top and bottom line growth in FY22 on a lag to the rest of the sector, contingent on the degree of property tax expense growth next year. PSA has already announced a high-single-digit increase to property staff wages amidst hiring challenges

Figure 1: Self-Storage Modeling Assumptions 

SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA) - Capture8

PDF LINK

Figure 2: Hedgeye REITs Position Monitor 

SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA) - Capture1

PDF LINK

Figure 3: Hedgeye REITs Sentiment Monitor

SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA) - Capture2

PDF LINK

Figure 4: REIT Style Factor Performance

SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA) - Capture3

SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA) - Capture4

PDF LINK 

Prior Notes:

12.17.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.17.21 | (Storage, Manhattan Office)

12.16.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.16.21 | (FR)

12.15.21 - EVENT REPLAY | FIRESIDE CHAT W/ WEWORK CEO SANDEEP MATHRANI

12.14.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.14.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)

12.12.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.12.21 | (WE)

12.11.21 - EVENT REMINDER | FIRESIDE CHAT W/ WEWORK CEO SANDEEP MATHRANI

12.10.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.10.21 | (ESRT)

12.8.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.8.21 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)

12.7.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.7.21 | (SLG)

12.6.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.6.21 | (WE NOVEMBER OPERATIONS UPDATE)

12.5.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.5.21 | (PGRE, EGP, PLYM, MAA, CPT, O, EPR)

12.2.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.2.21 | (WE)

12.1.21 - IGNORE CNBC RE: WEWORK RESTATEMENT | 12.1.21 | (WE)

12.1.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.1.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, WE)

11.30.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.30.21 | (AMH)

11.28.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.28.21 | (COLD)

11.23.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.23.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, WE)

11.21.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.21.21 | (WE)

11.19.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.19.21 | (CUBE)

11.17.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.17.21 | (STYLE FACTOR WORK)

11.16.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.16.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)

11.15.21 - CUBE ANNOUNCES STABILIZED ACQUISITION | 11.15.21

11.15.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.15.21 | (WE, ILPT)

11.14.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.14.21 | (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA)

11.11.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.11.21 | (LSI, NYC CBD OFFICE)

11.10.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.10.21 | (UHAL, CONE, COR, NSA, PSA)

11.9.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.9.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, SFR)

11.7.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.7.21 | (APARTMENT RENTAL RATE TRACKER, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)

11.4.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.4.21 | AMH 3Q21 RESULTS

11.4.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.4.21 | CUBE 3Q21 RESULTS

11.4.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.4.21 | (COLD, IRM, EARNINGS SURPRISE MONITOR)

11.3.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.2.21 | (LSI, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)

11.2.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.2.21 | (PSA, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)

11.1.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.1.21 | PSA 3Q21 RESULTS

10.31.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.31.21 | (3Q21 EARNINGS SURPRISES, POSITION MONITOR)

10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10.28.21 | CPT 3Q21 RESULTS

10.28.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.28.21 | (EXR)

10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/28/21 | INVH 3Q21 RESULTS

10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/27/21 | AVB 3Q21 RESULTS

10.27.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.27.21 | (3Q21 Earnings, AVB, EXR, Office)

10.26.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/26/21 | EXR 3Q21 RESULTS

10.26.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.26.21 | (EQR, REXR)

10.25.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.24.21 | (POSITION MONITOR)

10.21.21. - REIT RECAP | 10/21/21 | REXR 3Q21 RESULTS

10.20.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.20.21 | (EGP, PLYM, REXR, ILPT)

10.19.21 - VIDEO | American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) Thesis

10.19.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.19.21 | (COLD, SLG, VNO, AMH, U.S. Office Utilization)

10.18.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.18.21 | (PLD)

10.17.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.17.21 | (PLD, POSITION MONITOR)

10.15.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/15/21 | PLD 3Q21 RESULTS

10.13.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.13.21 | (PLD)

10.10.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.10.21 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)

10.8.21 - BLACK BOOK ROUND-UP | AMERCO (UHAL)

10.7.21 - BEST IDEA ROUND-UP | AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST (COLD)

Please e-mail with any questions.

Rob Simone, CFA
Managing Director
Twitter: @HedgeyeREITs