Trendspotting: Hispanics Have Become Swing Voters

NewsWire: 12/17/21

• Hispanic voters are now almost evenly split between Democrats and the GOP, according to a new poll. The same share of voters (37%) said that they would back a Democrat or Republican candidate in the midterm elections. (The Wall Street Journal)
• NH: In April, I highlighted poll results showing that Hispanic support for the GOP was rising, particularly among Hispanic men. (See "The GOP Keeps Gaining Among Latinos" and “Latino Voters Are Up for Grabs.”) In 2012, 27% of Hispanics voted for Mitt Romney; in 2016, 29% for Donald Trump; and in 2020, 32% for Trump. However, the overall Hispanic vote remained solidly Democratic. In 2020, the 68% remainder (not counting third parties) voted for Joe Biden.
• Now the situation looks more troubling for Democrats. A new poll shows that for the first time, Hispanics are almost evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans in their preferences for Congress and the presidency.
• When asked which party they would support if the midterm elections were today, 37% of Hispanic voters said they would support the Republican congressional candidate, while 37% said they would support the Democrat. 22% were undecided.
• Hispanic voters were also closely split when asked about a hypothetical rematch in 2024 between Presidents Biden and Trump. 44% would back Biden, and 43% would support Trump.

• Behind these results is a large and growing gap between Hispanic men and women. Support for Trump and Republican congressional candidates is significantly higher among Hispanic men. Fully 56% of Hispanic men would vote for Trump in 2024, which is nearly double the share of Hispanic women who would (30%).
• Is there any good news for the Democrats? One silver lining they might consider is that in every presidential election since the 1980s, Hispanic women have voted at higher rates than Hispanic men. Since 2016, the gap has been about 5 percentage points. Hispanic women who are 65+ vote at lower rates than their male counterparts, but as you move down the age ladder, Hispanic women outvote men at increasingly bigger margins. Overall, although there are more voting-age Hispanic men than women, the higher registration and voting rates among Latinas make Latinas a bigger share of the voter population. 
• Still, while this might mitigate the gender gap, it's not going to cancel it out. Any indication that Hispanics have become swing voters is a political earthquake. This hammers home what’s at stake in upcoming elections. Democrats are at risk of losing a voting bloc they have counted on for decades to win, while the GOP has an opportunity to build on their momentum from 2020.
• In previous NewsWires, I broke down some of the forces that are driving Hispanic voters, and in particular Hispanic men, to Republicans. To recap: For one, Hispanics are much more conservative than white Democrats on social issues. They make up the fastest-growing group of small business owners in the U.S., the fastest-growing group of Protestant evangelicals, and nearly 21% of federal law enforcement personnel--all factors that are associated with backing the GOP. They also have a large gender gap (mirroring that of whites) in their attitudes toward credentials: Especially at higher income levels, young Hispanic women are much more likely to earn college degrees than young Hispanic men. (See "Are Young Men Giving Up on College?") What's more, many Hispanics are turned off by the Democrats' emphasis on multiculturalism, feeling that it defines them as less than fully American.
• In the WSJ poll, Hispanic voters ranked economic issues as the top policy priority they cared about. They were more likely to say that the GOP would do better at handling economic issues like controlling inflation and cutting the federal deficit. These sentiments are echoed in a new Equis Research study, which found that the majority of Hispanic voters supported Trump-era economic policies like reopening the economy during the pandemic (66%) and letting states set their own Covid-19 policies (62%).
• Democrats continue to have the edge when it comes to Hispanics believing that the party cares more about “people like [them].” But they’re now on even ground with Republicans in areas they used to lead: valuing hard work, standing for the American Dream, and helping American workers.