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In 2020, there were only 8.5 births in China per 1,000 people. New figures also indicate that the number of marriages has plunged by nearly half since peaking in 2013. (Bloomberg) |
NH: China has just released its 2021 Statistical Yearbook. The government report provides population data through 2020. So what did we learn?
In 2020, China’s birthrate hit a record low of 8.5 births per 1,000 people. That’s a -18.2% YoY decrease. But these results are no surprise. The numbers match China’s 2020 decennial census, which found there were a total of 12M births last year. (See “China's Population: A Mystery Wrapped in a Riddle: Part 2.”)
Back in May, we reported that China was planning to revise the country's birth data upwards from 2011 to 2019. By doing so, the government could admit to the significant drop in births yet also keep China's total population above 1.4B.
We don't want to sound conspiratorial, but it does seem very odd that the recent plunge in births has conveniently coincided with a sizable underestimate in the early 2010s. We also know that the 1.4B landmark was a critical symbol of national pride for the CCP.
In any case, the extra births were officially included in this report. +10.1M births were added between 2011 and 2019. (See “China’s Census Highlights Low TFR, Slow Growth.”)
The report also showed the number of marriages continued to fall, down -40% since the peak in 2013.
While much of this decline is due to young people not wanting to get married, roughly half is probably due to the shrinking size of China’s marriage-age population.
In 2015, there were 230M Chinese youths between the ages of 20 and 29. But in 2020, there was only 187M in this age group.
This smaller new cohort group represents the baby bust that followed the belated "Deng Wave." (See Charts 16 and 17 in "Global Demography Review.")
All in all, this report lacks any promising news for China on the demographic front. And as I have said before, be prepared for the CCP to continue doubling down on pronatalist policies.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
