NewsWire: 12/16/21
- In 2020, Australia’s fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.58. As is the case in other high-income countries, births declined the most among teen girls and rose the most among women in their early 40s. (The Guardian)
- NH: Over the years, we have written numerous NewsWires on advanced economies experiencing significant drops in births. And new 2020 data from Australia show this is also happening Down Under.
- According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there were 294,369 births in 2020. That’s a -3.7% YoY decrease. As for the TFR, that also fell from 1.66 in 2019 to 1.58 in 2020. Australia has been below the replacement rate (2.1) since 1976.
- Every age bracket experienced a decline in birth rate. Teens (15-19) recorded a whopping -10.34% YoY drop. And women in their early 30s recorded a -4.26% YoY drop. These age bracket declines are in line with trends in the US. (See "CDC Confirms 2020 Birth Decline.")
- Most of this 2020 birth decline doesn't reflect the impact of the pandemic. Australia’s first lockdowns were in March 2020, and we wouldn't see the effect until December at the earliest. As for 2021, monthly data from the state of Victoria suggests that there were large YoY birth declines in January and February, reflecting the lockdown with a nine month lag. That later eased, with a rebound in births from April to September, reflecting Australia's significant drop in infections and deaths in September 2020. (See “Europe’s Ongoing Birth Decline.”)
- But keep your eyes out for 2022. Australia’s biggest wave of infections began in August of this year and is still relatively high. Nine months after August gets you to May of next year.
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