FAFH VS FAH
In November, the food at home vs. food away from home differential increased 0.6%. Food at home inflation has exceeded food away from home for the second consecutive month. The food away from home index increased 5.8%, the most significant 12-month increase since 1982. The index for limited-service meals increased 7.9% over the last 12 months, while the index for full-service meals increased 6%.
Getting some LOVE
Sweetgreen (SG) is attracting some over-the-top commentary after the expiration of the quiet period. So far this morning, JPMorgan (Overweight, price target $36), Goldman Sachs (Buy, $48 PT), Cowen (Outperform), Oppenheimer (Outperform, $41 PT), RBC Capital Markets (Outperform, $40 PT), Morgan Stanley ($Overweight, $39 PT) are all in with bull ratings. Goldman Sachs analyst Dan Garber thinks Sweetgreen (SG) is leading growth in the salad/bowl category and has a long runway for development. Cowen analyst Andrew Charles: "Our confidence in SG's 38% 2022-25E revenue growth is largely a function of 25% annual net restaurant growth, which is aided by growing Millennial & Gen Z demand for sustainability & digital. SG is a COVID-19 recovery story & we categorize our estimates for a rebound in sales volumes to 2019 levels in 2022 + adj EBITDA virtually breakeven in 2023 as somewhere between real to conservative." I say that setting expectations for profitability in 2023 makes the stock even better short, and I put fair value in the $17-20 range.
GETIR
Nazim Salur, the founder and CEO of Getir, has an ambitious goal, planning to offer the startup's 10-minute grocery-delivery services to major cities on the West Coast within one year, including LA Infomation. How much money will they burn, and what will it mean for the competition. Based in Istanbul, the company made its U.S. debut in Chicago earlier this month, has raised almost $1 billion and is now valued at $7.6 billion. The competition is from well-funded delivery providers GoPuff and DoorDash, and Jokr.
