India's TFR Falls Below Replacement. NewsWire

NewsWire: 12/8/21

• India’s total fertility rate has dropped below replacement rate for the first time to 2.0. In cities, the TFR is even lower at 1.6. (The Washington Post)
• NH: India’s Health Ministry just released its latest iteration of the National Family Health Survey. The nationwide survey provides data on everything from fertility rates to family planning and is used by the government and international agencies as the best estimate for fertility rates. This survey is conducted every five years. 
• Most noteworthy, the survey found that India’s TFR fell from 2.2 in 2015-2016 to 2.0 in 2019-2021. This is the first time India’s fertility rate has fallen below replacement (2.1). 

• The UN, the gold standard for tabulating international fertility statistics, still reports India’s TFR as 2.14. But it does so because its India data are still based on the 2015-2016 Nation Family Health Survey. When the UN updates its numbers, I'm confident the figures will match. 
• So what caused this fertility decline? The survey found that since 2016 the share of women using contraceptives rose +13 percentage points to 67%. Additionally, the share of 20- to 24-year-olds who married before 18 fell from 26.8% to 23.3%. Undoubtedly, the pandemic also played a role. So keep your eyes out for a possible rebound when the pandemic ebbs. (See “Europe’s Ongoing Birth Decline.”) 
• The latest UN projections, made in 2019, show India’s population exceeding China’s by 2027. But Dr. Nandita Saikia, a demographer at the International Institute for Population Studies, now thinks this milestone “could be delayed if this trend continues…. but not for long.”
• So maybe India will beat China in the population race after 2027. On the other hand, China's fertility rate has also been declining much faster than the UN predicted. (See "China’s Census Highlights Low TFR, Slow Growth.") The real question is, which country is coming in the furthest below expectations?
• In any case, no observer expects China to still be number one by the end of the 2020s.