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No Longer Just a Hoop Dream

Another month of strong sales and unit growth for basketball footwear, marking the fourth in a row of positive increases.  This should not be too surprising given the resurgence in excitement surrounding the NBA (TNT ratings season-to-date are up 40% y/y), the launch of UA’s basketball shoe, and recent wave of new product introductions (Lebron VIII, Reebok Zig, Hyperdunk 2010, etc…).  Importantly, we remain confident that this remains the beginning of a longer term trend. 

 

As shown below, the category suffered declines in 14 of the prior 16 months beginning in April 2009.  While comparisons remain easy, the emergence of key product and technology launches coupled with increased marketing  keeps us especially bullish on the prospects for Foot Locker .  Importantly, year to date unit sales remain below levels recorded over the past couple of years, leaving room for further recovery.  FL is the biggest the beneficiary of the hoops recovery given its industry leading penetration of the category.  However, this is not a zero sum game and we believe the rising tide will also benefit additional retailers including DKS, HIBB, and FINL with exposure to basketball.

 

No Longer Just a Hoop Dream - basketball

 

Eric Levine

Director


CPI - SMOKE AND MIRRORS

I know food inflation is only a small part of the CPI but I’m using this as an example to make a bigger point, the current government data does not reflect reality.

 

We already know that the weights assigned to different components of CPI do not accurately reflect consumers’ share of wallet among those components.  On another note, recurring seasonal patterns, which are present in numerous time series data presented by the government, obscure the underlying behavior given the current economic climate.  If the 2010 data is seasonally adjusted using 2008 or 2009, you end up with one conclusion, and if seasonally adjusted using pre-2008 data – one likely has a different interpretation given the difference in volatility during these two respective periods.  These distortions are very clear in the recently reported CPI data. 

 

Yesterday's CPI came in below expectations, thanks partially to gasoline inflation that was reduced by seasonal adjustments. 

 

The issue here is that in November 2009, gasoline inflation was boosted by seasonal adjustments, but it was reduced in November 2010. Specifically, a non seasonally-adjusted 4.1% monthly gain in November 2009 gasoline prices ended up as a seasonally-adjusted gain of 6.4%. In contrast, a not-seasonally-adjusted 2.0% monthly gain in November 2010 gasoline prices ended as a seasonally-adjusted gain of 0.7%.

 

If you are a consumer that drove to work in the month of November 2009 and again November 2010, you paid 8% more for gas at the pump in November 2010 on a year-over-year basis.  The government CPI figure is clearly divergent from this figure.  Considering how integral a line item gasoline is for the consumer in his/her P&L, it is ridiculous that the divergence between gas prices and CPI is so stark. 

 

As a client of Hedgeye once said, “there is no inflation if you are an anorexic pedestrian”.  Per Wikipedia, CPI is representative of changes through time in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households.  Not so much.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

CPI - SMOKE AND MIRRORS - hedgeye inflation index1


R3: VFC, JNY, DG, H&M, and Tod's

R3: REQUIRED RETAIL READING

December 16, 2010

 

RESEARCH ANECDOTES

  • Green Monday sales (the historical peak day for online holiday spending) reached $954 million, representing an increase of 12% year over year.  This growth rate is inline with overall e-com growth holiday-to-date.  Through December 13th, it is believed only 1/3 of consumers have completed their holiday shopping.
  • According to Google, 64% of consumers anticipate shopping  post-holiday sales.  Not surprising given the increasing emphasis on January as a “profit center” vs. a “clearance center” over the past several years.
  • According to Dollar General, the company’s price points are 38% cheaper than drug stores, 20% cheaper than grocers, and at parity with the discount stores.

OUR TAKE ON OVERNIGHT NEWS

 

Margin Concerns for H&M and Inditex grow -  Fast-fashion retailers continued to thrive in the run-up to the holiday season, but rising input costs threaten to pressure their margins heading into 2011, figures published Wednesday by market leaders Inditex SA and Hennes & Mauritz showed. Spain’s Inditex, Europe’s largest clothing retailer and owner of the Zara chain, said net profit rose 42 percent in the first nine months of its 2010 fiscal year as the group continued to rapidly expand in Asia and roll out its Zara online store across Europe. Meanwhile, H&M reported that same-store sales rose 8 percent in November, the same month its collaboration with French luxury label Lanvin was introduced, helping to fuel a 5 percent increase in sales for the financial year as a whole.  Inditex posted net profit of 1.18 billion euros, or $1.55 billion, between Feb. 1 and Oct. 31. Sales totaled 8.87 billion euros, or $11.64 billion, up 14 percent versus the same period last year. Dollar figures are converted from euros at average exchange rates for the period in question.The gross margin stood at 59.9 percent of sales, up from 57.1 percent in the first nine months of fiscal 2009. Store sales in local currencies climbed 10 percent year-on-year between Aug. 1 and Dec. 12. Analysts said the figures were broadly in line with expectations, although, based on the available data, they calculated that sales growth slowed somewhat during the first six weeks of the fiscal fourth quarter.  <WWD >

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  Anyone get their hands on the Lanvin collab at H&M?  This has got to be one of the most successful luxury/fast fashion collaborations we’ve seen in the past 5 years.   Sold out.  Everywhere.

 

VF Corp. expects increase of 3B in sales for North Face by 2015 - VF Corp. plans to more than double The North Face’s volume to $3 billion in the next five years. The strategy, which would add $1.6 billion to its current sales of $1.4 billion by 2015, is built on reaching new customers by broadening category offerings, driving growth in foreign markets, expanding the direct business and investing in technology.

At an investor conference in New York Wednesday, Steve Rendle, president of North Face and VF’s Outdoor Americas unit, said, “North Face is one of a handful of brands that has the permission to extend beyond what it began as.” The business is expected to reach $1.4 billion in sales by the end of 2010, or 18.4 percent of VF’s anticipated $7.6 billion in revenue for the year.  <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  After moving to an Activity Based Model in early 2008, the company is focused on growing its Action Sports (skiing, snowboarding, etc.) and Performance (running, training, etc.) categories as the primary drivers of incremental growth over the intermediate-to-long-term. In turn, this categorization will help in tiering product across distribution more effectively – a necessary adjustment as the brand targets aggressive door growth plans.

 

Della Valle Brothers Sell 10 Percent of Tod's Shares - Christmas clearly comes more than once a year for Diego Della Valle, chairman of Tod’s SpA. Having already made a paper profit of more than $180 million on his investment in Saks Inc., Della Valle, along with his brother Andrea, has just received more than $300 million from the sale of 10 percent of Tod’s shares. The brothers had asked Italy’s merchant bank Mediobanca to place just over three million shares of the luxury goods group on the market, which amounts to about 10 percent of Tod’s capital. Italy’s Bourse said Wednesday that Mediobanca completed the operation at the price of 76 euros, or $101.90 at current exchange, a share, through an accelerated book-building offer. The operation netted the Della Valle brothers 232.5 million euros, or $311.7 million at current exchange. The Della Valle family remains the company’s largest shareholder after the placement, retaining almost 58 percent of the Italian firm, parent to the Tod’s, Hogan, Fay and Roger Vivier brands. Andrea Della Valle is vice chairman of the group. “We have been receiving indications from the market for some time to increase the liquidity of our shares in order to facilitate the investments of primary investors, who are often limited by a restricted free float,” said Diego Della Valle. “We have therefore tried to follow the investors’ requests, even if this means we have had to temporarily sacrifice the value of our investment.” <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  Nice gesture to cash out a $300 million equity stake to help investors increase their liquidity.  Or perhaps, the proceeds are about to be plowed into another luxury brand/retailer?

 

Heather Morris of 'Glee'  becomes new  Flirt Ambassador-  Flirt has signed “Glee” star Heather Morris as its Flirt ambassador. Morris, who plays cheerleader Brittany Pierce on the popular Fox TV sitcom, will hold the ambassador spot through next fall. The strategy, originated in 2004, is intended to match up-and-coming stars with the brand, which is owned by the Estée Lauder Cos. Inc.’s BeautyBank division. Past ambassadors have included Michelle Branch, Mila Kunis, Serena Williams and Vanessa Minnillo. According to Morris, the partnership works on many levels. “Brittany is the biggest flirt on “Glee,” so there’s that — not to mention I’m obsessed with the Flirt makeup,” she said, naming a lip color named Tootsie as her favorite. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  What’s surprising is how long it has taken for Glee’s cast to cash in on their endorsement potential. 

 

Men's Tailored Clothing Industry weakened by commodity inflation -  "The industry is in turmoil.” That was the assessment of Ronny Wurtzburger, president of Peerless Clothing International, as he addressed the outlook for the tailored clothing industry next year.  Price increases on cotton, wool and polyester, coupled with a decrease in production capacity in factories overseas, is expected to add $10 to $20 to the wholesale cost of most suits by fall 2011, he said. Additionally, the economic uncertainty that still lingers in the U.S. continues to impact manufacturers and retailers seeking to boost sales. “Tailored clothing is necessary but not crucial,” said Jim Ammeen, president and chief executive officer of Neema Clothing. “It’s a postponable purchase.” Despite the challenges, manufacturers believe that by offering fresh fabrics, silhouettes and detailing, men will be stimulated to add to their wardrobes next year.  “Buying piece goods for next season is like playing the stock market,” said Wurtzburger. “You call for a price every day, and every day it’s different. If it were the stock market, we’d be happy, because it’s only going up.” <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:   With JOSB and MW both recently reporting disappointing results, the supplier community certainly isn’t adding any hope to the industry’s outlook.  With that said, this is likely just one category where the pressure is going to be meaningful.

 

Sidney Kimmel moves to Non- Executive Chairman - Sidney Kimmel, founder of The Jones Group Inc., will move to the post of non-executive chairman of the company from his current post as executive chairman on Jan. 1, as Jones completes its 40th year in business. To commemorate Kimmel’s service, the company will donate $6 million to the Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore and $2 million to establish a trust for post-secondary educational assistance for qualifying children of company personnel. The trust will be administered by an independent third party. Kimmel established the Sidney Kimmel Foundation in 1993. The philanthropic group and its cancer research subsidiary since have donated more than $550 million to cancer research.<WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:   The end of an era for one of the most tenured and pioneering apparel executives.  While Kimmel may be better known in the recent past for his investments in Hollywood productions, his roots are clearly tied to 7th Avenue.

 

L'Oreal to spend 26B to avoid take over , Exane Says - L’Oreal SA, the world’s largest cosmetics company, has capacity to spend as much as 20 billion euros ($26 billion) on acquisitions to help it avoid being taken over by Nestle SA, analysts at Exane BNP Paribas said. Fragrance makers Estee Lauder Cos. and Elizabeth Arden Inc. are among the possible targets for Paris-based L’Oreal, analysts Eamonn Ferry, James Bushnell and Jeff Stent wrote in a research note dated yesterday. L’Oreal will have net cash of about 2.7 billion euros by the end of 2012, and owns 9 percent of Sanofi- Aventis SA that it should sell, the analysts said. The stake is worth about 5.8 billion euros at current market values. Nestle owns about 30 percent of L’Oreal and probably wants to buy the French cosmetics company, the analysts said. Nestle Chief Executive Officer Paul Bulcke said in October that the Swiss food company is “sticking to the status quo” on L’Oreal. The French government and Bettencourt family, which owns about 31 percent of the cosmetics maker, would probably prevent a takeover by Nestle, the Exane analysts said. L’Oreal is more likely to make acquisitions than repurchase shares with its cash, because a buyback would increase Nestle’s stake, the analysts wrote.  <Bloomberg>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  Add to the list of takeover soap operas.  Interestingly, most of these “sagas” appear to have roots in France.

 

China: Retail sales of consumer goods up 18.7% in November -  China's retail sales of consumer goods grew 18.7 percent in November year on year, 0.1% higher than the same period in the previous month, said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Retail sales of consumer goods stood at CNY1.39 trillion yuan (US$208.1 billion) in November, said the NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun. Retail sales of consumer goods in the January-to-November period reached CNY13.92 trillion, up 18.4 percent from the same period last year. <FashionNetAsia>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  More fuel for retailers and western brands chasing China growth prospects.

 

China: Children’s shoe sector saw increasing growth - China's children shoemaking industry has recently been undergoing an ever-increasing growth, said industry representatives and experts from China Leather Industry Association who gathered in Quanzhou city to discuss the future of the sector.  According to the meeting report, China has 380 million children under the age of 16, with an increase of 27 million new born babies each year that accounts for one fourth of national total population and provides a market value of CNY30 billion. The report also pinpointed that in many Chinese families 40% of the household income are spent on children, and that represents a tremendous potential for business in China. Health, safety and comfort have currently become the essential factors for children’s shoemaking enterprises to take into consideration, and therefore designers should pay close attention to safety and health elements when designing, industry experts stressed. <FashionNetAsia>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  With Payless announcing its Stride Rite licensing agreement in China just last month, demand appears to be coming in strong at the right time.


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JOBLESS CLAIMS FLAT BUT YIELD SPREADS BLOWING OUT

Initial Claims Fall 1k Before Revision

The headline initial claims number fell 1k (3k after the revision) this week to 420k.  Rolling claims fell to 422.75k, 5.25k lower than the previous week and a new YTD low.  We continue to remind investors that the unemployment rate won't improve until we see claims move into the 375-400k range - this is based on our analysis of past cycles. That said, it is worth highlighting an important caveat. This recession has been different in that it has pushed the labor force participation rate down by ~200 bps, which has had a correspondingly positive improvement on the unemployment rate. In other words, the unemployment rate isn't really 9.8%, it's 11.8%. So when we say that claims of 375-400k will start to bring down the unemployment rate, we are actually referring to the 11.8% actual rate as opposed to the 9.8% reported rate. Today's data is a tiny step in the right direction. 

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS FLAT BUT YIELD SPREADS BLOWING OUT - 2

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS FLAT BUT YIELD SPREADS BLOWING OUT - 3

 

In the table below, we chart US equity correlations with Initial Claims, the Dollar Index, and US 10Y Treasury yields on a weekly basis going back 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS FLAT BUT YIELD SPREADS BLOWING OUT - 1

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur


THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 16, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 14 points or -0.26% downside to 1230 and 0.87% upside to 1246.  Equity futures are trading modestly above fair value following mixed day on Wednesday, which saw the S&P snap a six-day winning streak. 

 

In Europe, the start of a two-day summit may be of note should any major disagreements emerge on how best to deal with the European sovereign crisis going forward. On the data front, weekly jobless claims, Q3 current account balance and Dec Philadelphia Fed are due for release

  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) announced 64c-shr dividend for 4Q, vs BDVD est. 68c
  • AutoZone (AZO) authorized $500m stock buyback
  • Bank of America (BAC) said some investors in soured mortgage bonds agreed to postpone deadlines set in Oct. 18 letter
  • Danaher (DHR) sees 1Q GAAP EPS 52c-57c, vs est. 57c
  • Herman Miller (MLHR) reported 2Q adj. EPS 29c vs est. 28c
  • Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) agreed to acquire FTEN, terms not disclosed
  • Nordson (NDSN) sees 1Q adj. EPS $1.03-$1.13 vs est. 94c
  • SciClone Pharmaceuticals (SCLN) will end devt. of SCV-07 for hepatitis C after trial didn’t meet primary endpoint
  • Tower Bancorp (TOBC) announced public offering of $44m shares

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.17%), S&P (0.51%), Nasdaq (0.40%), Russell 2000 (0.43%)
  • Last Week:  Dow +0.25%, S&P +01.28%, Nasdaq +1.78%, Russell +2.70%
  • Month-to-date: -to-date: Dow +4.10%, S&P +4.63%, Nasdaq +4.76%, Russell +5.69%;
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +6.21%, S&P +8.24%, Nasdaq +10.50%, Russell +13.64%;
  • Year-to-date: Dow +9.87%, S&P +10.77%, Nasdaq +15.34%, Russell +22.86%
  • Sector Performance: Utilities (0.9%), Financials (0.9%), Materials (0.7%), Energy (0.7%), Tech (0.6%), Industrials (0.5%), Consumer Disc (0.4%), Healthcare (0.4%), Consumer Spls +0.1%.              

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -965 (-597)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1111.05 (+16.58%)
  • VIX:  17.61 +0.34% YTD PERFORMANCE: -18.77%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.10 from 1.26 -12.40%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.50 -0.203 (-1.214%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.14% -0.01%  
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.85 from 2.83

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 318.90 -0.25%
  • Oil: 88.62 +0.39%
  • COPPER: 413.25 -1.82%
  • GOLD: 1,386.38 -1.22%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3276 -1.02%%
  • DOLLAR: 80.261 +1.13%

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • European markets mostly trade higher with indices near the days best levels.
  • Gains are muted ahead of the start of the two day EU Leaders Summit as investors await any details on an increase in the size of the current bailout fund and following Spain's bond auction that saw a significant increase in yields.
  • Advancing sectors lead decliners 16-2 with healthcare and insurance the only sectors lower.
  • Retailers are amongst the leading gainers. US futures trade higher 
  • Dec Preliminary PMI France: Manf 56.3 vs con 57.6; Svcs 54.1 vs con 55.2, Germany: Manf 60.9 vs con 58.1; Svcs 58.3 vs con 59.0, EuroZone: Manf 56.8 vs con 55.2; Svcs 53.7 vs con 55.2, UK Nov Retail Sales inc. fuel +0.3% m/m vs con +0.4%

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Most Asian markets fell today, with concerns about European debt keeping many players out of the market.
  • Australia rose slightly. Virgin Blue and Air New Zealand rallied 6% each after the ACCC conditionally approved their alliance.
  • Japan was flat, as gains from a weaker yen were offset by worries about European debt.
  • South Korea fell0.41%, breaking a three-day winning streak.
  • Coal stocks rose, but China fell 0.46% on low volume.
  • Insurers took Hong Kong down 1.33%.

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER



TALES OF THE TAPE: MCD, YUM, PFCB, SBUX, CHUX, CBRL, DRI

More weakness in restaurant stocks yesterday with coffee concepts being the worst performers over the last week.

 

Some news items from the restaurant space:

  • MCD Japan revised up its earnings outlook for the year ending December 31st due to the introduction of a new menu and the shutdown of non-profitable stores.
  • PF Chang’s China Bistro has appointed Lane Cardwell, most recently CEO of Boston Market, to the board of directors
  • Goldman Sachs has resumed coverage of YUM with a Neutral rating and $58 price target
  • The Kraft versus Starbucks showdown continues with Kraft raising prices on both its Maxwell House and Yuban Coffee brands by approximately 12% after prices for green coffee rose to 13-year highs.  Starbucks says that the move is in violation of Kraft’s agreement with Starbucks (that Starbucks is trying to sever)
  • O’Charley’s CEO Lawrence Hyatt has resigned, effective this year end.  As you can see in the table below, shares of CHUX sold off on high volume.  Who knew what and when?
  • CBRL subsequently named Hyatt as CFO
  • As the second table below illustrates, the Street’s estimate of DRI’s earnings have been creeping ahead of the quarter – the company reports EPS on 12/20.  Intra-quarter, DRI introduced new products and lowered select prices at Red Lobster.  Business at Reb Lobster continues to lag Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse
  • Burger King is no longer requiring its restaurants to stay open until 2 a.m. on Fridays and Saturdays.  While this is a victory for franchisees, it is a clear indication of the lack of profitability in late night for Burger King

TALES OF THE TAPE: MCD, YUM, PFCB, SBUX, CHUX, CBRL, DRI - stocks 1216

 

TALES OF THE TAPE: MCD, YUM, PFCB, SBUX, CHUX, CBRL, DRI - cd estimates

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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