CHART OF THE DAY: The (Not So) Simple IF/THEN Equation

Now I know why the biggest consensus “bet” in Global Macro (a +2.73x 1yr z-score futures & options bet) was to “buy Gold”:

A) IF the illegal “edge” was supposed to be that Brainard was going to win…
B) THEN bond yields would fall and Gold would continue to rise

That’s as simple as an IF/THEN equation gets in macro. If you had the Brainard part right, that is…