NewsWire: 11/3/21
- The final births data for 2020 is here: The general fertility rate (GFR) declined 4% YoY, to 56.0 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44. Births fell most sharply among women under 35. (National Center for Health Statistics)
- NH: The CDC has released the final 2020 birth data. And it confirms the results of the provisional report released in May. (See “CDC Confirms Birth Decline.”)
- As we expected, the GFR (births per 1,000 women ages 15-44) declined for the sixth year in a row. It fell from 58.3 births in 2019 to 56.0 births in 2020. That’s a -4% YoY drop and marks a record low.
- This decline in births occurred across races and ethnicities. Among Hispanics, the GFR fell -3% YoY. And among whites and blacks, it fell -4% YoY.
- The birthrate fell most dramatically among the youngest age brackets and less among older age brackets. The rate for teens (15-19) fell by -8% YoY. And the rate for women in their early 30s fell by -3% YoY; this Is further evidence that Millennials aren't experiencing a "tempo effect." (See "So Much for the 'The Tempo Effect.'")
- Keep in mind that CY 2020 almost entirely reflects pre-pandemic fertility behavior. We anticipate that 2021 will more fully show the effects of the first year of Covid-19. Remember, nine months after the first March lockdown brings you to mid-December 2020. Data show that December births were down -8% YoY, a larger drop than any other month. We expect similarly significant declines at the beginning of 2021. (See “US Births Now in Free Fall.”)
- Final note: This report didn't provide a final TFR for 2020. The provisional TFR was reported in May to be 1.64. We will be sure to alert you when the CDC updates its findings.
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