TWO Black Book Events this week
We are hosting two events this week tomorrow, 11/2 @ 10 AM is out BYND deck and 11/4 @ 2 PM why we are covering SAM and what it would take to go LONG. Nearly a year ago, we added Boston Beer to our Best Ideas shortlist. We outlined our concerns that hard seltzer was a COVID-19 beneficiary, that product shortages would lead to excess supply, and that competitive intensity would increase. We are now removing Boston Beer from our shortlist. We see the risk/reward as evenly balanced from here.
The hard seltzer category had been the biggest game-changer to beer since craft beer decades ago. What took craft beer three decades to reach, hard seltzer did in a little over three years. The growth has been phenomenal, but is it over? Was it a fad? Or is it a pause before resuming further growth? On Thursday, we will provide an update to our hard seltzer Black Book from a little over a year ago, the competitive landscape, and our future projections.
SAM is not a broken company and has a long history of outperforming the S&P 500 on a 5-year (144%), 10-year (153%), and 20-year basis (976%). After underperforming the S&P 500 by 13% over the past two years, will the company return to its glory days, or are its best days behind it? We will answer that question and provide our thoughts on what it would take to make us go long.
We will also update our projections and the impact of the hard seltzer's slowdown for the competitors in BUD, TAP, and STZ.
SOFTBANK SELL SOME DASH
SoftBank Vision Fund discloses the sale of 10M shares of DASH (Form 4 filed on Oct 29th.) SoftBank Vision Fund beneficially owns 33.6M shares of common stock following the transaction,
Restaurant industry SHORT INTEREST
BJRI is the best idea SHORT
