The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 6th of December through the 10th is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.
This note was originally published at 8am this morning, December 03, 2010. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.
“Less Is A Good Thing.”
-Jason Fried & Heinemeier Hansson
At our year-end Hedgeye meeting this week, this was the most valuable take-away from the aforementioned bestselling authors of “REWORK.”
My immediate term support and resistance levels for the SP500 are 1197 and 1223, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
The loss of lots 7 & 8 should not have been a surprise.
LVS's 'loss' of sites 7 & 8 shouldn't be a big surprise. Aside from the recent Macau government news on reclamation of undeveloped land, the fact that LVS has not yet been granted a land concession for sites 7 & 8 is also explicit in all of LVS's filings. We have also heard for a while now that the Macau government would like each of the concessionaires to have strip facing properties, with the exception of Galaxy due to their development off strip.
While it's clear that Sands had hoped that given their $6BN of capitalized investments on Cotai, history would repeat itself and the government would grant them the land concession for sites 7 & 8, the Company was aware of a possible rejection of the concession.
"Based on historical experience with the Macau government with respect to our land concessions for the Sands Macao and parcels 1, 2, 3 and 5 and 6, management believes that the land concession for parcels 7 and 8 will be granted; however, if we do not obtain the land concession, we could forfeit all or a substantial portion of the $102.4 million in capitalized construction costs, as of September 30, 2010, related to our development on parcels 7 and 8."
- September 20, 2010 10Q, page 36
In fact, despite having a land concession for parcel 3, should development on that site not be completed by April 2013, Sands is also at risk of losing that site. Luckily, they have only invested $35MM into that parcel. Our contacts on the ground believe that it would be in Sands's best interest not to appeal and to possibly leverage off any good faith they build from not appealing in negotiations for a Four Seasons apartment deal.
In terms of implications for Sands China, we don't believe that this is a big negative since anything built on sites 7 & 8 would take billions to finish and wouldn’t open until at least 2016. In addition, any opening would likely cannibalize existing LVS properties the most. By then, there may be other opportunities for LVS to deploy their billions, like Japan.
The decision to reject LVS's land concession for sites 7 & 8 opens up an opportunity for both Wynn and MGM to move their plans on to the strip, and with the situation surrounding the Macau Studio City site still in the air, it may also open up an opportunity for SJM.
In terms of negative implications to Wynn Cotai, we don't really think there are many. Wynn is in the process of developing their site now and they only have 1 site in Cotai. LVS had 8 parcels in Cotai – with no definitive timeline for the development of its 3 remaining sites. We don’t think that this is a departure from what the government has been saying for some time – basically, use it or lose it. Remember, a lot of controversy surrounds many of these land grants/ "handshakes" that were done under the previous administration, especially around the award process or lack thereof. The result was hundreds of parcels which companies are sitting on for over 5 years that are not getting developed--which is not good for the people of Macau or the government. So bottom line--easy come, easy go.
Appendix of recent government announcements on the potential reclamation of unused land:
Hedgeye Position: Long Germany (EWG); Short Euro (FXE), Short Italy (EWI)
Yesterday we shorted Italy and the EUR-USD off a two-day bounce in equities and declines in peripheral yields. We called out the move as a dead-cat bounce and continue to stress that despite immediate term market swings, over the intermediate to longer term we expect the risk premium across Europe to remain elevated as the risk associated with the sovereign debt contagion spreads to the likes of Portugal, Spain and Italy.
That said, we’re seeing another day-over-day decline in risk via 10yr bond yields from the PIGS (except Italy) that is worth a call-out (see chart below). Further the EUR-USD has gained ground, currently at $1.3365, which we shorted into.
This lift comes into and out of ECB President Jean-ClaudeTrichet’s announcement yesterday morning to hold the ECB’s benchmark lending rate steady at 1%, and no step-up to its €67 Billion bond purchasing program, which the market was largely speculating on given the Fed’s $600 Billion QE2 injection (Quantitative Guessing) and the Bank of England’s larger bond purchasing program of £200 Billion.
The ECB will keep offering banks unlimited loans through the first quarter over periods of seven days, one month, and three months. That marks a shift from last month, when Trichet said that the ECB could start limiting access to its funds, a position long voiced by Bundesbank President Axel Weber.
Positive Data, on the margin
-The Bundesbank revised upward its GDP forecast for Germany in its bi-annual economic outlook today:
3.6% in 2010 (vs June estimate of 1.9%)
2.0% in 2011 (vs 1.4%)
1.5% in 2012
-Final readings of November Manufacturing and Services PMIs, released on Wednesday and today, respectively, showed month-over-month gains for the majority of the reporting countries:
Positive Divergences: UK Manufacturing rose to 58.0 in November versus 55.4 in October and Germany Services jumped to 59.2 vs. 56.0.
Negative Divergence: Spain Services rose M/M to 48.4 but remain under the 50 line, denoting contraction. Italy Manufacturing fell to 52.0 vs 53.0.
Keep your risk management pants on and have a great weekend!
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 3, 2010
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or -2.01% downside to 1197 and 0.12% upside to 1223. The unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (+39,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. S&P 500 futures dropped sharply on the number.
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
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