I'm seeing GREEN!
Florida Tracker
Sales in Florida have remained flat for the past three months. It is estimated that Florida will have 2021 total sales of about $1.96 Billion, making it the most significant medical state in the country. The two largest operators in Florida, Trulieve and Verano, continue to gain market share. The next four largest are losing significant market share. Two smaller producers gaining market share are both VidaCann and Harvest Health. Ayr added two dispensary locations in the state, while Harvest added one. Patient growth has remained steady at .4% this past week.
Kovler's $150M NY Cannabis Campus
GTBIF is a LONG
Interstate commerce is looming over the horizon, yet GTI operates undeterred. In Warwick, NY, 60 miles north of Manhattan, Green Thumb Industries is breaking ground on a 40 acre 200,000 Sq. Ft. grow facility. This $60 Million facility will be the first phase to supply the soon-to-boom NY cannabis market. We expect NY sales to reach $3.4 Billion at maturity, second to only California. The facility, which will eventually grow into a campus, is being built on the grounds of a former prison. "The irony of building a cannabis facility near the grounds of what used to be a federal prison is not lost on us," Kovler tells a group of union leaders and politicians on a cloudy day in early September. "We understand what happened with the War on Drugs. And we're planning to flip that around. Change is really in the air; change is happening in the country; change is happening here." Green Thumb currently has three dispensaries and one cultivation license in the state. Though three may not sound like many, the largest company in the state currently has five full licenses, so Green Thumb is not far behind. The incumbents in the state will have a strong advantage when recreational sales begin in 2022. Additional licenses will undoubtedly be issued by the state but will take time.
ACB is a Disaster
The CEO of Aurora Cannabis looks to be in over his head. All you need to do is listen to him on CNBC, and it's obvious, but it's even more evident listening to earnings calls. ACB sold approximately half as much recreational cannabis in Q4 2020 as it did in Q4 2019, which means Aurora's share of the adult-use cannabis market continues a rather steep and painful descent. The best part is when the company cites "the impact of lockdown restrictions" for its poor recreational sales in the quarter. Yet, the Canadian market is growing 50% YoY and set monthly records for all three months in the past quarter. All in ACB has incurred losses totaling about $4.0 billion and will likely never make money, yet the company's market cap is over $1.2 billion. ACB will make a great SHORT one day soon.
