The 2021 annualized run-rate for tracked recreational cannabis is $16.6 Billion and $3.96 Billion for medical, totaling $20.6 Billion. Total industry growth was 22% YoY, down 5% sequentially from July. In addition, for the fourth month in a row, recreational sales growth slowed to 17% growth in August from 25% in July, while medical grew 43%, down from 46.3% in July. In total, August was a difficult month for the cannabis industry after a robust July. Total sales for August in all Hedgeye tracked recreational states was $1.419 Billion, while medical was $346 Million.
There was a notable deceleration sequentially across all states, with the only state to improve sequentially was Maine at +8% due to its recent commencement of sales. Hard to point out any seasonal factors influencing such a dramatic slowdown, but we suspect there is likely some seasonality in August after a robust July. Washington joins OR and CO as the only three states to see YoY declines in sales for August.
IL, MA, and FL remain the fasted growing states seeing YoY growth. One other data point to highlight is the slowing growth in California! In 1Q21, the California cannabis market grew 35% and had seen its growth slow to a 4% increase YoY to $434 Million in August, down from 7% YoY growth in July.
3Q21 to date, Recreational sales have grown 21.5%, down from 38.2% in 2Q21 and 46.8%. The significant slowdown in sales for the industry, while still healthy, can help to explain the fundamental pressure the stocks have been under since the end of 1Q21. In addition, medical sales have slowed from 90.8% in 1Q21 to 44.5% in 3Q21 to date.
Its important to note that NV, MI and AZ sales for August are Hedgeye estimates.
