Initial Claims Approach YTD Lows
Initial jobless claims seem to be getting better. The headline initial claims number rose 4k last week to 439k, but rolling claims fell 4k to 443k. As the following two charts show, both reported and rolling claims are knocking on the door of their YTD lows, but have yet to break through. Claims still need to be in the 375-400k range for unemployment to meaningfully improve - still well below where we are now.
Yield Curve Widening
The following chart shows 2-10 spread by quarter while the chart below that shows the sequential change. After falling sharply for two quarters, the 2-10 spread has stabilized thus far in 4Q. Yesterday’s closing value of 238 bps is up from 224 bps last week.
The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations.
Joshua Steiner, CFA