Hedgeye House Call - The Doctor is in
On Wednesday's Hedgeye House Call + Q&A we will cover:
- COVID-19 Update, Including Testing (DGX) | We can't wait to stop talking about the Delta Variant, and we are hopeful that the "resistance" it mets in the northern states helps mitigate the risk of another spike in hospitalizations when kids go back to school. The last thing we need is the main street media having more ammo for fear-mongering click bait. In this context, we'll review our thesis on Quest Diagnostics and highlight how we're modeling the twin benefits of a return to in-person care and COVID testing.
- Health Care Employment / Hiring (AMN) | HR and Staffing Directors across Health Care are dealing with what looks increasingly like mortal combat on a daily basis. We know the C-suites at health systems are keenly aware of rising labor costs, but as ATIP and others showed us recently, a tight labor market puts the topline at risk too. We'll review the most recent labor data and provide an update on our newly improved AMN tracker (jobs and wages). While it looks like there's been some resolution with regard to strikes recently, there's no shortage of headlines about significant signing bonuses for nurses (all the way up to $40k!) and demand for temp/contingent staffing all across the US. Delta + the reopen has created an even more challenging environment to navigate for Health Care providers than we envisioned - that said, Delta Variant looks like the last [big] COVID wave to us and likely an inflection point to take an already tight labor market to a whole new level of crazy.
- The Future of Telemedicine | Telemedicine used to be rare and special before COVID, and now, everyone is doing it. There are longs and shorts on both sides of where telemedicine and its derivatives are heading.
- ATI Physical Therapy (ATIP) Update | With a new tool to leverage, we think we can efficiently monitor ATIP for the sort of turnover/attrition that wrecked the bull thesis from $10. However, the "macro" backdrop for Physical Therapy remains strong, and ATIP should be able to mend its self-inflicted wounds. From here, $8 is not impossible to imagine, and if that's the case, $30 isn't out of the question over a long tail duration. We still need to hear something constructive with regard to the mechanics around 2022 revenue and EBITDA, and we'll want to see the USPH forecast algo hold its own.
- MicroQuad & Consensus Estimate Trend Updates | 2Q21 earnings results were solid but we're now seeing the impact of Delta, we think, in the estimate trends for 3Q21 and 2022, as the revision trend we track so closely every week appears to have stalled. We'll provide a detailed update of the MicroQuads and which companies are seeing the most revision action, with emphasis placed on MicroQuad 2 stocks and stocks cycling between MicroQuads.
|
Hedgeye House Call | DGX, AMN, Telehealth/TDOC, ATIP, Reopen, MQs Please join us on Wednesday, September 8th, 2021 @ 2 PM ET - Add to Outlook Calendar Health Care Subscribers: CLICK HERE for event details (including video, materials links, and Q&A box) |
Upcoming calls & Recent Content
Executive Insights | Sept. 13, 2:30 PM ET | Oncology Testing/Screening focus; stay tuned for details!
8/30: Monday Estimate Revision Trend and MicroQuad Update - Week of August 30 - CLICK HERE for access to the note
8/23: Stock Brief | GDRX | Guidance for 3Q21 Reasonable, but Future Consensus Could Be a Stretch - CLICK HERE for access to the note
8/23: Monday Estimate Revision Trend and MicroQuad Update - Week of August 23 - CLICK HERE for access to the note
8/24: Field Notes I TDOC I Employers May Have Rotated Faster Than Teladoc Could Acquire/Evolve - CLICK HERE for access to the note
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
Twitter
LinkedIn
