Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Financials analyst Josh Steiner.
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Dunning-Kruger describes the process whereby people with low expertise in a given subject rate themselves highly in that area while those who are expert in that same subject tend to both underestimate their own abilities and overestimate those around them. This is known as illusory superiority, and it explains how we tend to judge ourselves better than others to an extent that violates the laws of math. For instance, 88% of drivers consider themselves above average [fast fact: the least experienced drivers – those with less than 6 months behind the wheel – are 8x more likely to be involved in a fatal auto accident], while 42% of engineers at a particular software company rated themselves among the top 5%. In fact, those with the least abilities are most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent. This mismatching of actual abilities versus perceived abilities gives rise to a peculiar bizarro-world in which those who tend to know the least about subjects often are the most outspoken, most convicted and never-in-doubt on a given topic. Meanwhile, those who truly understand the subject best are often more nuanced, more reserved and less assured in their presentation because they know just how complex a given subject is. |
