“If you don’t want to play that way, don’t play that way”
- Michael Jordan
From a #process and team building perspective, of all the things I’ve seen and read since our #Quad4 “call” on JAN 30, 2020, that unapologetic statement by Michael Jordan in The Last Dance resonated most with me.
You do what you do. I do what I do. And what I do in this fishbowl of Early Looks, tweets, and Macro Show rants in front of all to see can only be done one way – my way.
Obviously I’m not MJ. I am Mucker. Who are you? What is it that you do? “Once you joined my team, you lived at a certain standard that I played the game, and I wasn’t going to take anything less.” -MJ
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
If The Singularity of my Full Investing Cycle Process told me to “make the #Quad4 call”, I would have. Like basketball games and seasons, no Cycle is the same. The process of proactively preparing to play The Game we are in is.
Not unlike any professional sport, as The Game changes, I change. Most of the time, I do so incrementally.
I’m not going to waste time rewinding the game tape on moves we’ve already made as we Phase Transition our portfolios and Asset Allocations from #Quad2 to #Quad3.
I’m not going to waste any more of my precious life (cycle) time reminding you that no one talked about Full Investing Cycles, Quads, and fractal Phase Transitions until I did either!
What I am going to do this morning is tell you 3 incremental #Quad3 USA moves I am going to make next:
- I am buying Gold (GLD) when it is at the low-end of my @Hedgeye Risk Range™ Signal
- I am buying Utilities (XLU) when they are at the low-end of my @Hedgeye Risk Range™ Signal
- I am shorting Financials (XLF) when they are at the top-end of my @Hedgeye Risk Range™ Signal
No, I didn’t make these moves during another episodic-and-non-TRENDING US Equity Volatility Spike that ended on Monday of this week. I don’t chase charts like a panting dog. I don’t puke and panic at the low-end of my Risk Ranges either.
After people do that, I make my moves. Patience is core to the #process, don’t forget.
And yes, I go both ways and I like it. Not only is shorting the Financials (XLF) a new move, it’s one that comes after a big time bounce off the low-end of the XLF Risk Range, taking SPY to within -0.6% of her ALL-TIME closing highs.
Yes, all-time is a long time. Neither SPY nor QQQ (which is only -0.7% from its all-time closing high) is signaling anything but #Quad2 phase transitioning into #Quad3 either.
For those of you who are new to seeing me execute my process with A) my own hard earned capital and B) in real-time for all to see, welcome and thank you for subscribing. My tireless teammates and I sincerely appreciate it.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets:
UST 10yr Yield 1.19-1.46% (bearish)
UST 2yr Yield 0.19-0.26% (bullish)
SPX 4 (bullish)
RUT 2113-2303 (bearish)
NASDAQ 14,378-14,871 (bullish)
Tech (XLK) 148.04-153.81 (bullish)
Energy (XLE) 46.14-54.43 (bullish)
REITS (XLRE) 45.32-46.80 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 3 (bearish)
Nikkei 27,339-28,537 (bearish)
DAX 15,184-16,037 (bullish)
VIX 13.99-21.96 (bearish)
USD 91.54-93.14 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 66.63-77.61 (bullish)
Nat Gas 3.58-3.98 (bullish)
Gold 1 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
