Who's Really Turning Away from Democracy? NewsWire

NewsWire: 6/24/21

• According to a new YouGov poll, the majority of Trump voters are deeply unhappy with democracy. They’re also more likely than other groups to be pessimistic about where democracy is headed in the future. (The Washington Post)
• NH: The author of this op-ed, Philip Bump, interprets these poll results as a dark omen for the future of democracy. Republicans are deeply discontent: 74% of them are not satisfied with how U.S. democracy is working, and 49% are not optimistic about the future of democracy. What’s more, 19% of Republicans at least somewhat disagree that democracy is the best form of government. All of these figures are even higher among Trump voters, but considerably lower among Democrats and Biden voters.

• Bump connects these findings to the GOP’s widespread efforts to pass voting restrictions in various states--apparently because they're giving up on democracy.
• This interpretation is fundamentally misguided.
• Bump is correct that Americans are unhappy with democracy. But it’s not limited to Republicans and Trump voters. As is the case now with issues ranging from Covid-19 to the economy (see “Americans Eager for Major Political Reforms” and “If You Love Trump, You Think the Economy is Strong. If Not, Not.”), how voters feel depends on who’s in power. When YouGov asked the same questions in 2018, 74% of Democrats said they were unhappy with how democracy was working. 9% disagreed that democracy was the best form of government, while an additional 12% said they weren’t sure.

• And while Democrats are more optimistic about democracy today, they’re hardly jumping for joy. The majority (51%) are still unhappy about how it’s working.
• Two massive studies by the Cambridge University Centre for the Future of Democracy show that declining confidence in democracy is a secular trend encompassing nearly all high-income countries across the entire political spectrum. And it is driven, at least in part, by lower confidence among those who are born later. At any given age, in other words, confidence is declining by birth cohort. (See “Global Millennials: Down on Democracy and Drawn to Populism.”)
• Across the electoral cycle, multiple surveys have shown that Millennials are the least attached to democracy, the most enthusiastic about populist leaders both on the left and the right, and the fastest to abandon moderate technocrats once they are elected. (See "Are Millennials Giving Up on Democracy?") This dissatisfaction is deepening as they grow older.
• So yes, Bump is right: Democracy is in trouble. But its biggest long-term threat isn't unhappy (and mostly older) Trump voters. It’s unhappy younger voters.