Event Attendance: Rebounding Unevenly. NewsWire

NewsWire: 6/19/21

• Big events are on their way back, with festivals appearing to be the first to rebound. The industry expects overall attendance levels to exceed 2019, though certain types of events will take longer to recover. (Recode)
• NH: June is predicted to be the first month since the start of the pandemic that live events will bring in over $1B in revenue. As vaccination rates rise and Covid-19 cases fall, consumers feel more comfortable attending public gatherings. But not all functions are rebounding equally.
• The biggest winners are outdoor events. According to PredictHQ, festival attendance for the second half of the year will be 87% of 2019 levels. For expos, it will be 68%. And for sports games (indoor and outdoor), it will be 58%. This is no real surprise. We have known for some time that Covid-19 transmission is extremely low in outdoor settings. And it tracks that people would feel safer at events without walls.
• The biggest losers are concerts and conferences. Both are currently projected to reach only 53% attendance of 2019 levels. I suspect concerts are down because they are often indoors, and people are going to outdoor music festivals instead. As for conferences, again, they are often indoors and require out-of-state travel. Moreover, of all the live events, conferences can be most successfully conducted over video chat. 

• Looking forward, event attendance will probably ebb and flow with the seasons. Virologists are already predicting the new norm for Covid-19 infections will be surges in the winter and decreases in the summer. Many people will base their comfort threshold for group activities based on these trends.

Did You Know?

• Colds Strike Back. As Covid-19 recedes and masks come off, we’re seeing the return of another virus: the common cold. Last year, cold and flu cases dropped to historically low levels nationwide. Cases of RSV, a common respiratory virus, fell to nearly zero during what would have normally been its peak season of late fall to early spring. But cases are rising once again, especially among young children. The CDC recently issued an advisory warning that RSV cases have been climbing since March, particularly in Southern states. RSV is the most common cause of pneumonia and bronchiolitis in children younger than age 1. The latest cases doctors are seeing are both out of season and more severe than normal, since many of the children who are getting sick haven’t had the chance to develop immunity while isolated at home. They’re more likely to need intensive care and are staying in the hospital longer.