Right on the Data, Wrong on the Opportunity
In a research paper released earlier this year, IQVIA found that almost one billion diagnosis visits had been missed during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Coincident with both our work and their conclusions, oncology was by far the largest specialty affected by these missed visits, foreshadowing patients returning to in-person care "sicker" than when they left it. We have heard this anecdotally from providers who are experiencing a higher percentage of patients with late stage cancers.
Exact Sciences picked up share in colon cancer screening as colonoscopies were deferred and delayed were replaced by at-home administered Cologuard. The ratio of Cologuard to screening colonoscopy jumped all the way from 0.5 to 3.0 during the shut down, but then quickly reverted back to 0.5, and so far in 2021 the ratio has been trending BELOW pre-pandemic levels. While a question at an investor conference suggests the pent- up colonoscopies are an opportunity to shift even more share to Cologuard, we believe share loss is much more likely. After a long delay, the risk of higher acuity is running higher, and we expect incremental pressure on Cologuard volume as a result.
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Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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