Trendspotting: China vs. The English Language

NewsWire: 4/25/22

• The English language is falling out of favor in China. It’s disappearing from schools and signage as the CCP continues to turn inward, with major implications for foreign businesses. (The Economist)
  
• NH: In 2008, when Beijing hosted the Summer Olympics, the Chinese government launched a massive program to teach citizens basic English in order to welcome and assist tourists.
• Fourteen years later, it was a different story. Not only did Beijing ban foreign spectators from the Winter Olympics entirely in response to the pandemic, but in the months leading up to the Games, authorities began replacing English words on subway signs with pinyin.
• This move echoes similar efforts around the country to downgrade English learning. Last August, Shanghai banned local elementary schools from testing English in year-end exams. Officials also banned the use of textbooks published overseas. A government adviser recommended that English should no longer be a compulsory subject in school curriculums and that it also be removed from university entrance exams.
• China’s turn away from English can certainly be interpreted, as The Economist does, as part of Xi Jinping’s campaign to tighten ideological control and promote nationalism. (See “Is This the End of Globalization?”) However, it isn’t a new phenomenon. Historically, China has fluctuated between periods of openness and strong resistance to Western influence. After initial openness, the Ming dynasty became notorious for its long-running ban on foreign trade. The Qing was again more open, until anti-Western sentiment surged even higher during the Boxer Rebellion.
• More recently came the Cultural Revolution, which virtually eliminated all English instruction up until the late 1970s. After Deng Xiaoping came to power, English education flourished throughout the 1980s and ‘90s. English was made a mandatory elementary school subject in 2001, the same year that China joined the World Trade Organization.
• Under Xi, China is retreating again. But this time is different.
• First, there is little of the vitriolic ideological fervor that marked the Cultural Revolution. While that might seem like a positive thing, the populist anti-elite isolationism of the Mao era was what made it temporary. Xi leads the establishment, and he isn’t going anywhere. He might not be heading a violent revolution, but he has made clear his ambitions to nudge aside the U.S. as the world’s sole superpower.
• Second, China is now the world’s second-biggest economy. There is little chance that the country will unilaterally choose autarky. Xi has said he has no intention of decoupling from other economies. And for obvious reasons: China's prosperity is hugely dependent on foreign trade. But China seems determined to weaken its less tangible ties: linguistic, intellectual, cultural. And as the pushback against Western influence grows, multinational companies who are heavily invested in China are at risk.
• On the broadest level, any company whose management is in English will have a harder time doing business. And on the industry level, brands that are the most strongly associated with American culture will be hurt the most. The product does not matter as much as cultural salience. As of last year, the U.S. companies most heavily invested in China are chipmakers, as well as two casino and hotel operators: Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Texas Instruments (TXN). But it’s unlikely they’ll be affected much, because none of these scream “America” like, say, Hollywood or the NBA.

• With China turning inward on multiple fronts, businesses are already feeling the chill. Last month, 47% of the member companies surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce in China said that they were optimistic that the country will be opening its market to more foreign investment over the next three years, down from 61% in 2021. Collectively, the top reason these companies cited was tension between the U.S. and China.
• What’s more, the rise in anti-Westernism isn’t limited to the country’s leadership. China as a whole is moving in this direction. We’ve written before about how Chinese Millennials are more nationalistic (see “The Rising Chinese Youth Generation”) and that China’s management of the pandemic has further strengthened these sentiments. The number of Chinese international students was falling even before the pandemic hit. (See “The Falling Stars and Stripes.”) Populists have also championed homegrown movements to revive Chinese cultural institutions, from fashion to movies to television.
• Downplaying English, in other words, is just the latest sign of a broader transformation that is being embraced by officials and citizens alike. China is shunning the forces that helped it rise, and in doing so, may be turning itself back into a cultural and geopolitical island, even while it tries to remain fully engaged in global commerce. The big question is: Is that possible?