Trendspotting: Which Cities Grew the Most in 2021?

NewsWire: 4/8/22

• Many of America's largest cities saw big population declines in 2021--but the biggest declines happened in the most Democratic states. Blue zone behemoths like New York and Los Angeles lost hundreds of thousands of residents, while Sun Belt metros generally flourished. (The New York Times)
  
• NH: The Census recently published its annual population estimates for the year ending in July 2021. Last week, we analyzed the data at the county level. (See "73% of US Counties Experienced Natural Decrease in 2021.”) Now we examine population changes at the city level.
• The ten cities with the largest absolute population gains were predominantly in red-zone America: Seven out of the ten were in states that voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Conversely, nine out of the ten cities with the largest absolute declines were in states that voted for Joe Biden. 

  

• The same pattern held true in percentage terms. The top ten metro growth rates were all in states that voted Republican in 2020. And six out of the bottom ten metro growth rates were in states that voted Democratic. 

• Over the last few years, we have seen a shift away from the tech-centric super cities of the blue zone. These metro areas are largely unaffordable and riddled with inequality. (See "Biggest Metros Spawning Greatest Inequality.") The pandemic did not stop this trend. It accelerated it. Last year witnessed record migration to Sun Belt cities, where housing prices and tax rates are considerably lower. 
• Nationwide, the largest percentage gainers tended to be smaller cities with less than a million people. Feeding this trend, in part, was the flight from Democratic supercities like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles.