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Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary research note written by National Security analyst LTG Dan Christman. To access our Macro Policy research please email sales@hedgeye.com. |
With the Democratic Convention starting today and the November election ten weeks away, the foreign policy contours of a notional Joe Biden presidency are becoming clear.
Beyond broad “contours,” however, how might a Biden presidency differ exactly from President Trump’s approach to international affairs?
Not surprisingly, there will be changes, particularly in what passes for Trump’s foreign policy doctrine, “America First.” But there will also likely be some surprising elements of continuity with the 45th President.
Start with the most obvious changes:
Biden has made it clear he will refocus on allies, especially Europe and NATO; he’s joined in this core approach by his running-mate, California Senator Kamala Harris. But Biden has also made clear that he wants to include in a recalibrated U.S. outlook the broader family of democratic nations: critically, our North American partners, as well as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.
If the Biden/Harris ticket emerges triumphant in November, the “America First” doctrine that has left the U.S. increasingly “American Alone” will be consigned to history.
The second obvious change would almost certainly involve recommitting to international institutions and agreements that Trump has eschewed since his inauguration. This probably means:
- Reaching out to the 11 members of the “Comprehensive and Progressive Transpacific Partnership” (CPTPP, formerly the TPP), to try to rejoin - assuming Biden can get concurrence from his own Democratic caucus! Trade deals at this point don’t appear to be a high priority for a future Biden/Harris Administration; but the attraction of CPTPP as a strategic counter to China should eventually prove irresistible.
- Similarly, restarting a dialogue with Tehran, to bring them back into compliance with the nuclear deal and re-establish the U.S. as a participant.
- And with Russia, reengaging with Moscow over the INF Treaty and making a serious effort to extend NEW START; however, Putin will no longer be a “BFF,” and Trump’s decisions that played into Putin’s strategic game plan, like withdrawing combat forces from Germany, are likely to be quickly reversed.
- Finally, embracing global institutions that have been scorned for over three years - starting with the UN and its agencies, including the WHO, the WTO, the IAEA and other members of the broader UN family.
These two central features of a Biden Presidency – and they are the CORE of his world approach - would represent marked departures from the Trump years. But there would also be some interesting threads of continuity with the sitting President, like:
- U.S.-India relations – Trump followed the Clinton/Bush43/Obama path of deepening relationships with this key democracy; Biden will follow suit; he’ll also continue Trump’s timely “Indo-Pacific” strategy, but without the wearying and self-defeating debates over defense burden-sharing with Seoul and Tokyo.
- Afghanistan: Biden has never been a nation-building advocate and wants U.S. troops, except for a small number of counter-terrorism assets, brought home; so does Trump.
- Israel: Bibi Netanyahu, like Vladimir Putin, will depart from the Presidential “BFF” club. Bibi will however remain a Biden friend, as he has been for years. More broadly, the former Veep has been staunchly pro-Israel since his earliest days in the Senate; but he will not endorse any Israeli annexation of West Bank territory - a plank of the earlier Kushner-developed peace plan that seems now to be shelved in light of the historic UAE recognition of Israel that was announced last week.
- China – Finally, like Trump, Biden has painted the PRC in adversarial hues, even endorsing “Buy America” for strategic supply chains; the major difference? Biden will press Beijing on human rights (a current, late-to-the game Trump approach), and he’ll line-up U.S. allies in his China push-back.
Bottom Line: Ten weeks is an eternity in U.S. Presidential politics. And of course, there’s far more to Biden’s world view than these key points above – like his stances on climate, trade, and immigration.
There’s also the lingering question: is the damage Trump has done to the U.S. global standing retrievable? The German Foreign Minister is doubtful. I’m more optimistic.
Should Biden prove victorious in November, foreign and security policy successes are of course not guaranteed; nothing is certain in the modern realm of geopolitics and “Black Swans,” as Trump and his immediate predecessors will each attest.
But what does seem certain is that a Biden foreign policy will revert to the phrase that has characterized the U.S. international stance since WWII: “Together when we can, alone only when we must.” That has been a confident guide to strategic success for over 75 years, and remains the key for success in this challenging century.
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ABOUT LIEUTENANT GENERAL DAN CHRISTMAN
LTG Dan Christman, USA, Ret. serves as Hedgeye Potomac Research’s Senior National Security Analyst, providing deep insight into international affairs and national security. Most recently, Dan provided strategic leadership on international issues affecting the business community for organizations such as the US Chamber of Commerce. Dan’s long history of leadership includes his service as a United States Army lieutenant general and former Superintendent of the United States Military Academy. He served in highly visible and strategically important positions and four times was awarded the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, the nation's highest peacetime service award.
He also served for two years as assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during which time he traveled with and advised Secretary of State Warren Christopher. He was centrally involved during this period with negotiations between Israel and Syria as a member of the Secretary's Middle East Peace Team. Further, Christman represented the United States as a member of NATO's Military Committee in Brussels, Belgium.
Graduating first in his class from West Point, Christman also received MPA and MSE degrees in public affairs and civil engineering from Princeton University and graduated with honors from The George Washington University Law School. He is a decorated combat veteran of Southeast Asia, where he commanded a company in the 101st Airborne Division in 1969.
