Below is a complimentary excerpt from a Demography Unplugged research note written by Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe. Click here to learn more and subscribe.
|
Even as some states begin to lift stay-at-home orders, new polls indicate that tough social distancing restrictions continue to draw high bipartisan support. Fully 82% of Americans believe that state restrictions on businesses are either appropriate or not restrictive enough, while 86% say the same about limits on the size of public gatherings. (The Washington Post) |
NH: The conservative media have framed the anti-lockdown protests as an issue of elites vs. the people.The arrogant bureaucrats want to keep us home, but ordinary Americans yearn to go outside. They say that government intervention has gone too far for too long. America opposes strict social distancing rules along with such intrusions as contact tracing.
But none of this is true.
Polls show that the vast majority of Americans support the restrictions meant to combat the outbreak. In a poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, which was conducted April 21-26, just 17% of American adults said the restrictions on businesses go too far, while just 14% say the same about restrictions on public gatherings. An Associated Press poll conducted a few days earlier told a similar story: Only 12% of respondents said that the restrictions where they live go too far.
Twice as many people (26%) said that they don’t go far enough. Most (61%) say that these measures are about right. Only 16% think that it’s “very” or “extremely” likely that their areas will be safe enough within a few weeks for the restrictions to be lifted.
When asked about specific policies, Americans overwhelmingly said that they support shelter-in-place orders (80%), the closure of bars and restaurants (76%), and limits on gatherings of 10 or more people (82%). Since the end of March, when the AP first asked these questions, the strength of support for the first two measures has weakened slightly. People are more likely to say that they “somewhat” support shelter-in-place orders and restaurant closures instead of “strongly” support them, even though the overall level of support remains the same.
Behind the shift is a sharp partisan split. Over time, Democrats have grown more supportive of restrictions, while support from Republicans has declined. Still, even most rank-and-file Republicans remain in favor of these measures. In a Kaiser Family Foundation poll conducted April 15-20, 80% of Americans said that strict shelter-in-place measures are worth it to limit the virus’s spread. By partisanship, it’s 94% of Democrats, 84% of independents, and 61% of Republicans. Understandably, perhaps, Republican support is somewhat higher among Republicans living in states with Republican governors (63%).
Across all political identifications, majorities said they are willing to keep following strict social distancing and shelter-in-place guidelines for at least another month. When asked if they support or oppose the protesters criticizing the restrictions, 47% of Republicans oppose them and 36% support them, per Yahoo/YouGov polling conducted April 17-19.
The conservative media are right about one thing: Americans do support Trump's tough recent measures to block immigration. But here, surprisingly, even many Democrats are on board. In the WaPo-U. Md poll, 83% of Republicans supported the stopping of immigration, compared to 67% of independents and 49% of Democrats. So here too the real story is broad support for a measure that normally reflects deep partisanship. At least 6 in 10 whites and nonwhites, younger and older Americans, and men and women support this idea.
Most people across party lines also support some kind of tracing measure. In the KFF poll, 68% of Americans said they’d be willing to install a phone app that would share test results with public health officials to track the spread of the outbreak (81% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans). The public is less enthused about an app that would use GPS data to track if they come into close contact with someone who’s been diagnosed (50%) or notifies public health officials of this information (45%), with Republicans objecting more to these measures than Democrats. However, support for these measures rises considerably when people are told that they will enable more people to return to work or school and more businesses to reopen.
That last finding really points to the heart of the problem. I have the sense that most Americans are willing to follow many, if not all, guidelines from the top when they understand the reasoning behind them and when they trust that broad public compliance will make them successful. But in the absence of strong leadership and consistent messaging, it's easy to provoke anger and promote conspiracy theories. And the media are always happy to report on the loudest voices and create the impression there’s widespread discontent in America about top-down social distancing regulation. There isn’t.
IMO, the moment of truth will arrive in early June when we discover that easing up on the rules has not done much to restart the economy but has triggered accelerating infections rates in many regions. At some point it will be obvious that we have to go back, hunker down, and painfully regain all the territory we lost.
When that happens, there will be hell to pay from the majority that was willing to stay the course.
* * *
ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
