Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note published by Director of Research Daryl Jones on April 20th. CLICK HERE to get daily COVID-19 analysis and alerts from our research team and access our related webcasts.

“The more things change, the more they stay the same.”
- Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr


  • We saw a dip in new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. on Sunday to 25,844, which was the lowest number since April 5th.  No real change in the trend as the four-day average of new cases is ~29,000.  As is becoming typical, weekend case count was lower.
  • Similarly, in global cases we saw a dip Sunday to 75,804 new daily cases, but the four-day average remains at ~83,000.
  • Obviously, if global cases and U.S. daily new cases are staying in the same range, then Europe must be as well.  The one caveat is that Europe appears to have found a new lower plateau, which we show graphically below.
  • Many of the “hotter” spots remain hot with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Peru, Brazil all growing in the 10% range.

Covid-19 Update – More Of The Same (4/20/2020) - 02.26.2020 black swan cartoon

U.S. Situation

The U.S. is currently at 761,991 cases, which is up roughly 20% since our last note four days ago.  There does seem to be some evidence that the high is in for U.S. daily new cases, which was hit back on April 4th, but the plateau of ~30,000 new cases per day remains sticky.

Covid-19 Update – More Of The Same (4/20/2020) - covid.4.20.1

The U.S. has performed 3,893,815 COVID-19 tests, had 752,725 positive results (19.3% positive test rate), and 35,957 deaths (for a 4.7% morbidity rate on positive tests). The U.S. continues to add incremental testing, albeit at a moderate pace.

    • If we incorporate re-stated NYC deaths, the morbidity rate is ~5.4%

Covid-19 Update – More Of The Same (4/20/2020) - covid.4.20.2

There does seem to be growing evidence that hospitalizations in the hardest hit areas are either declining or declining on a rate of change basis. This is obviously a real positive

    • As an example, Connecticut currently has 1,901 hospitalized patients and has been dropping by ~30 patients the last couple of days.
    • Below is a chart from New York State, which highlights this decline in hospitalizations.

Covid-19 Update – More Of The Same (4/20/2020) - covid.4.20.3

Europe Situation

As the chart below shows, Europe is now clearly at lower plateau in terms of daily new COVID-19 cases.  Continental Europe would be even lower as Turkey and Russia, for purposes of this chart, are categorized as Europe and growing at much higher rates than Western Europe.

Covid-19 Update – More Of The Same (4/20/2020) - covid.4.20.4

Russia is very much on the bad side of the curve and hit a new high of daily cases on Sunday at over 6,000.  Total cases are up about 4x in the last 10 days. The bulk of total Russian cases, almost 2/3s, are in Moscow proper.  Based on reports, Moscow is likely to reach max hospital capacity imminently.

Covid-19 Update – More Of The Same (4/20/2020) - covid.4.20.5

  • The good news from Europe is that some of the earliest hit economies are gradually opening.  With the adoption of safe social distance practices, hopefully the likes of Spain, Italy, Germany, Denmark, etc, will be able to continue the decline of daily new cases

Global Situation

Global new cases have been in the range of 75 – 100K for most of April.  This number is likely to stay in this range for the foreseeable future, but obviously daily growth rates continue to go lower and are now in the 3 – 3.5% area. The busy chart below from the Financial Times compares infection curves globally.

Covid-19 Update – More Of The Same (4/20/2020) - covid.4.20.6

We’ve been highlighting Singapore as an example of a second wave and the numbers in Singapore continue to go higher with 1,426 new cases as of today.  According to the Minister of Health in Singapore, 95%+ of these new cases are foreign workers living in dormitories, so actual community spread is low

    • Ultimately, despite the numbers moving higher quickly, Singapore likely has the situation under control due to smart testing and tracking.  But it speaks to how quickly a break-out can occur.

Covid-19 Update – More Of The Same (4/20/2020) - covid.4.20.7

In many of the emerging markets, it appears that case counts are still low.  The primary reason for this remains limited testing for the size of the population.  The interesting derivative benefit though is that air pollution, especially in India, is dropping meaningfully due to lockdowns.