Takeaway: Saudi Arabia and Russia agree to baseline of 11.3 million barrels per day with each producer contributing cuts of 20 percent

We now expect OPEC+ to agree to a production cut of 11 million b/d for May and June from a baseline of about 11.3 million barrels per day. The baseline was the remaining issue that was resolved today between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Hedgeye forecasted an OPEC+ cut of about 10 million b/d for the 2nd quarter with the cut amount reassessed at the June OPEC meeting. As we said in our flash call for clients on Wednesday, there was an effort to increase the cuts close to the 15 million b/d number that Trump tweeted last week. We would not be surprised to see Saudi Arabia announce a shock-and-awe type cut number in response to Trump and try to put a floor on prices.  

See twitter feed this morning from Joe McMonigle with some excerpts from the data presentation to OPEC delegates and follow @joemcmonigle for live updates during the day.