If you’re looking for a leading indicator on Asia, in particular semi-conductors, just watch the Kospi.
Looking at it this morning you can see it’s down another full percent last night and it's down -29.8% from where we went bearish on Asia back in 1Q18.
Also, look at the Hang Sang. That chart goes ALL the way back like the Kospi. Look at those bear market bounces!
Those were much bigger than the one that we just had in terms of the actual level, but we’re still talking about big bear markets.
How long has it lasted? You guys can do the math. I’m sure you’re good at math, that’s why you like us.
The point is that this bear market has been going on in Asia, Hong Kong, Kospi, Singapore, all the way back. Indonesia is down again this morning.
And I get people criticizing me saying, “Oh Keith, I don’t care about Indonesia.”
Yea. You don’t because you don’t know what you’re doing.
When you look at the market, look at the global equity market, the global rates markets, the global commodities market, and understand that we have already had a raging bear market that has lasted a long period of time in Asia.
The world is most certainly not out of a deep Quad 4.