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Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note published by Director of Research Daryl Jones on March 27th. CLICK HERE to get daily COVID-19 analysis and alerts from our research team and access our related webcasts. |
"You will become way less concerned with what other people think of you when you realize how seldom they do."
- David Foster Wallace, “Infinite Jest”
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Yesterday, as we wrote last weekend was likely to happen, the U.S. surpassed China with the most reported COVID-19 cases globally (Editorial note: we obviously get that the China numbers are likely grossly understated). U.S. cases currently sit at 86,102, which is up 25% from yesterday’s note. (Update: U.S. cases now at 92,932)
- Daily growth rates in the hardest hit regions of Europe – Italy, Spain, Germany, and France – remain on a lower trend, although new daily case counts continue to be near highs.
- No meaningful change in Asia, though interestingly China decided to close all of her move theaters nationwide.
U.S. Situation
As of earlier this morning, the U.S. had performed 540,252 tests with 82,234 positives, 10,459 hospitalizations, and 1,197 deaths. Positive test ratio in aggregate is 15.1%. The chart below looks at new daily tests, new daily cases, and positive test rate as of yesterday:
Obviously, there is some delay in a test being taken and then a result being received. Given that daily tests are increasing and the positive test ratio is trending up, we would assume it is likely that daily new cases in the U.S. continue to set new highs in the coming days and weeks.
New York City continues to be a curious case for us. If we look purely at the daily new case data, the story, on the margin, appears to be improving i.e. transmission of COVID-19 slowing. The chart below shows this data going back to March 17th:
In part it seems likely that testing is more limited in NYC as the NYC health department is primarily focus on testing those who might need hospitalization. This is born out in the New York State data (which NYC is over 50%), which shows that 28% of those tested are positive (almost double the national average) and of the positives roughly 18% have been hospitalized.
Governor Cuomo did note a slowing of hospitalization rates two days ago, we will be watching this closely as it is a real positive sign for U.S.’s epicenter to already be seeing slowing hospitalization rates
Interestingly, and no surprise, alcohol sales in NY have booming. The chart below looks at liquor store sales in NYC pre and post lockdown:
The map below looks at COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Currently, the hot spots are New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and parts of Michigan.
European Situation
Below is the table of the earliest hot spots in Europe going back two weeks. The data for today is from Johns Hopkins and the historical data is from WHO, so we wouldn’t put too much credence in the last 24 hours, with the exception of Italy where the data eventually matches up. In general, it seems we are past peak growth rates though we are still adding record new cases in most countries.
In the chart below, we take a look at Italy specifically. Based on the data, Italy was the earliest hit and the hardest hit. On the positive, the growth rate has clearly slowed, but on the negative Italy is still adding 5000 – 6000 cases a day.
In total, Italy has 80,589 cases, 8,215 deaths on those cases, and 10,361 recovered. Obviously assuming a true morbidity rate is 1 – 2% suggests that that there are really 400,000 -> 800,000 cases in Italy.
There are now 15 countries in Europe with both more than 1,000 cases and growing case count at double digits.
Global Situation
Currently as of the most recent Johns Hopkins data, there are 558,502 recorded cases of COVID-19 globally, 25,251 deaths, and 127,615 recoveries.
While there are regions globally that have slowed and/or are meaningfully slowing COVID-19 daily case count growth, the global numbers are showing an acceleration. We show global cases over the last ten days, as of yesterday, in the chart below:
China +113 (for whatever the numbers are worth), Korea +104, and Japan +98 are all seeing a slight uptick in new cases
China also closed her borders as the concern is now, presumably and ironically, about imported cases.
Other global hot spots to watch:
- Australia 2,799 cases, +547 day-over-day
- Malaysia 1,796, +172
- Canada 3,409, +1,670
- Generally, now seeing a fair bit of growth south, on small numbers, south of the equator
