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    The Call @ Hedgeye Plus

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Our Restaurants analyst Howard Penney is presenting his Restaurant Macro Themes deck on Tuesday March 24th at 10AM ET. In addition to presenting macro themes for the broader restaurant industry, he will do a deep dive into the liquidity, cash burn analysis, and sales sensitivity of the individual restaurant companies.

The presentation will also include the results of our recent consumer survey to understand their current behavior and thinking.

If you are an institutional investor interested in accessing this call or related research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

Which Restaurants Will Survive? - 3 20 2020 12 42 19 PM

The Top 3 themes of our call will be:

  1. The restaurant sector has had a full cycle move in just two weeks. We have complied a litany of current data points to put our finger on the pulse of the restaurant industry. Our near real-time data points will show the sales trends by sub-sector. There has been a rush of government restrictions and mandates that are accelerating the sales declines and we are updating our list daily. Will there be any relief from commodities or store closings? How do we think about valuations and historical precedents?
  2. Individual company analysis of SSS sensitivity to several scenarios for the coronavirus impact on 2020, a deep dive on each company’s liquidity, and estimated cash burn rates to ultimately determine which restaurant companies will survive and which will need additional funding or be closed. The market seems to be pricing in numerous bankruptcies in the sector, but we will be able to point to the proverbial “baby in the bath water.”
  3. What does the consumer really think? – we asked them. We surveyed consumers to get a sense of their current and future behavior. What is keeping the consumer from visiting the restaurant? Will the consumer switch to delivery and take-out like the restaurant management teams expect? How realistic is it to expect a snap back recovery?