CHART OF THE DAY: Investor Complacency More Pronounced

“So”… why did I cover my shorts after Tuesday’s selloff then short HIGH BETA Tech “stocks” (like Semis, SMH) into yesterday’s market close? That’s easy. My vol of vol signal gave me a particular signal:

1. On March 2^nd implied volatility on SPY ramped to a +65% PREMIUM vs. what had been realized in the last 30 days
2. Only 2 days later, implied volatility on SPY got smashed to a -19% DISCOUNT vs. 30-day realized … and
3. Despite the CNBC “Biden Surge” in “stocks”, front-month VIX didn’t close below 31

It closed at 31.99. And, by my #process, that’s a particular pitch that I know most money managers can’t hit. Oil bulls and whoever is, god forbid, still long Energy Stocks (XLE) can’t hit an Oil Vol slider of 51 either.

So, instead of telling me about “Hedge Funds Buying The Dip” (Bloomberg article), tell me about long only and hedge fund managers who can hit 5 different kinds of pitches in 3-5 completely different market days.

Under these economic #Quad4 and market vol conditions (1-day bounces in SPY of > 4%), you’ll have to show me the track records of those who risk managed through 2001-2002 and 2007-2008, successfully, to do that.