Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro Analyst Christian Drake.
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Suffice to say, to the extent the 2018 cratering in both fundamentals and equity performance was cultivated by an affordability crunch perpetuated by twin rate shocks and amplified by an acute crescendo in domestic & global growth angst (trade war, government shutdown, rising recession risk), rampant construction input cost inflation and ongoing existing market supply constraint …. 2019 pretty much represented the opposite/reversal of that factor set. And with those collective dynamics being the comp and with the domestic labor market taut and still tightening, the global central bank collective conspicuously pivoting to easing mode, and interest rates down notably from year-ago levels, housing consumption has been a primary beneficiary. You can read other nuance into it but it hasn’t really been more complicated than that. |
