Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones.
It’s a loser’s game to try and front run any specific macro-economic data point, but there is some evidence that the jobs report will be on the softer side today. In the Chart of the Day, we show ADP job numbers versus non-farm payroll over time.
These two data series aren’t always in lockstep, though do move in the same direction 2/3s of the time. As the chart shows, we will need one of the largest spreads versus ADP of this cycle to show job acceleration.