Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
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French, South African, and South Korean survey data were incrementally confirming of Quad 1/1/2 nowcasts for the respective economies here in 4Q19E. That was more than we could say for Italy, whose slowing Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence data pushed out nowcast into Quad 3. Investors should have, at best, a middling level of confidence in the implied -4bps deceleration in YoY Real GDP growth given that the base rate of 0.35% from 3Q19 is only in the 56th percentile of the 95% confidence interval range surrounding the nowcasted growth rate of 0.31%. When I started counting everything in rate of change terms, my whole professional life turned around. Best of luck and health to you and your loved ones for a Happy Thanksgiving. We have much to be thankful for. |
