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Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by US Macro Analyst Christian DrakeClick here to learn more.

  1. Comps: Headline CPI comps peaked in July/Aug and get progressively easier from here and into 1H20..
  2. Related to the first point, annualizing the Quad4 deflation of 4Q18 should see a notable rebound in both Food and Energy price growth.
  3. Late-cycle wage inflation is occurring domestically.  It is also occurring across the Eurozone where wage and salary growth continues to make higher cycle highs.
  4. Idiosyncracies:  Specifically,  pork prices in china, the consumption tax hike in Japan and Tariff related pass-through to U.S. consumers
  5. It’s already occurring …. Inclusive of growth slowing and the $USD strengthening, Core and Median CPI have broken to new highs over the last 3 months. The trend there is plotted in the Chart of the Day below.

CHART OF THE DAY: Has the Inflationary Breakout Begun? - CoD CPI

 CHART OF THE DAY: Has the Inflationary Breakout Begun? - early look