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It is unlikely that the entire U.S. economy is heading into a recession, according to Hedgeye models. However, that doesn’t mean certain parts of the economy can’t head into a recession – and drag the stock market down with those particular parts.

As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in the clip above, a recession in durable goods growth and in industrial production, as well as a significant slowdown in CAPEX - not to mention an earnings recession – are poised to send quarter-over-quarter U.S. headline GDP to its lowest point since Q1 of 2016.

“The comparisons are only going to get more difficult, so the economic data is going to slow more, which means you’re going to need more cowbell and people are going to be begging for more rate cuts,” McCullough explains.

Watch the full clip above for more.

McCullough: My Take On Recessionary Data - the macro show