This guest commentary was written by Jesse Felder.
Back in September I noted there was a historic streak in Hindenburg Omens triggering on the New York Stock Exchange.
Shortly afterward the stock market embarked on its steep fourth quarter plunge. Last week the NYSE triggered another Hindenburg Omen. And while this one has yet to become a cluster it’s probably important to note that the 12-month total is still running at 33 signals. This is well off the high of 53 set last fall but far higher than the 22 seen at the 2000 top and nearly as high as the 37 seen at the 2007 top.
All this means is that, even while some measures (like the advance-decline line) appear more benign, the breadth divergence we have witnessed in the stock market over the past year is among the most significant we have ever seen in its history.
Thus, by this measure, the probability of the broad stock market rolling over into a new bear market is as elevated as ever.
This is a Hedgeye Guest Contributor piece written by Jesse Felder and reposted from The Felder Report blog. Felder has been managing money for over 20 years. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Today he lives in Bend, Oregon and publishes The Felder Report. This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Hedgeye.