"When I got fired by Carlyle for being too bearish at the end of 2007, making The Cycle #Slowing call on the US economy wasn’t as easy as it was by the time I did one of my first 'public' Macro Themes presentations in Q2 of 2008," writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in today's Early Look.
"Since the stock market was in bounce mode (ultimately making its final obvious lower-high in May of 2008), at least 90% of the new Institutional clients we were prospecting thought the 'charts looked good', 'don’t fight the Fed', etc."
Just look at recently reported economic data. It's all telling the same story...
No worries. Durable Goods = the slowest pace of growth in 17-months.
Why be concerned about Capex? It's only fallen to +2.6% year-over-year from its cycle peak of 8.8%.
Retail Sales? Down to 2.2% year-over-year in February versus it's peak of 6.6% in July 2018.