NEWSWIRE: 10/2/18
- A new analysis shows that the U.S. divorce rate has dropped significantly since 2008—even after adjusting for the shifting age gradient of the population. What’s going on? Researchers attribute this trend to Millennials: By getting married later in life and keeping their options open for longer, today’s young adults may be finding more lasting matches. (Bloomberg Business)
- NH: Let's unpack this. Everyone agrees the overall divorce rate (divorces per 100 married women) rose rapidly from the mid-1950s to about 1980 and has been declining gradually ever since. Part of this post-1980 decline is due simply to the aging of married people--and the fact that older people divorce less often. Once you adjust for age, the recent downward trend is less clear: This author says there is still a decline, while others contend (after making adjustments to the data) that the rate is still rising slightly. Either way, the recent stabilization is the net result of two groups moving in opposite directions: younger cohorts (Gen Xers and Millennials) who are increasingly divorcing less at any given age; and older cohorts (Boomers and Silent) who are increasingly divorcing more at any given age. To cite Sheela Kennedy et al., "The shifting age pattern of divorce suggests a cohort effect. The same people who had unprecedented divorce incidence in 1980 and 1990 when they were in their 20s and 30s are now in their 40s, 50s, and 60s. The Baby Boom generation was responsible for the extraordinary rise in marital instability after 1970. They are now middle-aged, but their pattern of high marital instability continues." (See chart below: Note the steady lifetime peaking in divorce prevalence among Boomers born in the early 1950s.) On the other hand, let's qualify any description of Xers and Millennials as maritally more stable. Their divorce rate is declining, in part, because the most divorce-prone members of these cohorts (by education, income, and ethnicity) are not getting married in the first place. To quote from the article: "Fewer divorces, therefore, aren’t only bad news for matrimonial lawyers but a sign of America’s widening chasm of inequality. Marriage is becoming a more durable, but far more exclusive, institution."
- New estimates show that more than one-fifth (20.7%) of the Japanese population is at least 70 years old, the highest share ever. The nation’s dual headwinds of demographic aging and ultra-low fertility makes it a cautionary tale for policymakers worldwide. (Nikkei Asian Review)
- NH: Japan's aging has recently been accelerated by the 65th birthdays of large cohorts born in the early 1950s--while only small cohorts are now entering the workforce. In 2018, there are 9.5 million Japanese age 65 to 69, versus only 6.2 million age 20 to 24. And down the road, the youth cohorts are getting even smaller. Over the last five years, just under 5 million babies were born in Japan.
- The number of self-employed New Yorkers age 50+ is growing twice as fast as the overall number of residents age 50+. A new report recommends that in the “encore entrepreneurship” era, senior centers should be converted to incubation and networking hubs to support Boomers who want to start businesses rather than find jobs. (Center for an Urban Future)
- NH: As we have pointed out elsewhere (see: "Investing Webcast: Declining Business Dynamism: A Visual Guide"), Boomers are pushing up entrepreneurship among the elderly even as it declines among young adults. "Ask most New Yorkers to picture an entrepreneur, and they imagine a 20- or 30-something in jeans and sneakers." But as the author rightly points out, this stereotype is being shattered by the graying of startup artists. While Mayor de Blasio continues to demand full funding for hundreds of Big Apple senior centers that focus on calisthenics and shuffleboard, what a rising share of these Boomers really want is marketing and support for all their new businesses.
- Ridership of Washington, D.C.’s Metro system is down, and one generation in particular is to blame: Millennials. While this conclusion may seem like a head-scratcher because of this generation’s low relative car ownership, Millennials have been able to get by just fine thanks to ridesharing services like Uber. (The Washington Post)
- NH: While Millennials would love to use an effective mass transit system, they are optimizers--and they will quickly bail on an option that fails across the board, in terms of cost, time, and quality of service. Beset by mismanagement, underinvestment, skyrocketing pension costs, and dysfunctional unions, the D.C. metro system is, quite simply, the "worst in the world," an utter embarrassment compared to what's available in major cities abroad, from Paris and London to Moscow and Tokyo. This city boasts the highest concentration of young Democratic-leaning wonks in America, who may just conclude that they need to utterly jettison today's party elders if they want to make the trains run on time.
- Following a successful debut in San Diego, “memory towns” are poised to open in a local mall near you. The centers, which replicate a 1950s-era downtown where Silent Generation visitors can relax and reminisce, are injecting new life into dead malls that may have more of a future as elder refuges than teen hangout spots. (CityLab)
- NH: "Memory towns" for the Silent Generation brings to mind Andy Griffith hardware stores and sweet songs by the Fleetwoods. But let's ask ourselves what sort of "reminiscence therapy" may someday be available for Gen Xers with failing memory. Maybe hot tubs and bongs, maze-like malls and mosh pits... backgrounded by Nine Inch Nails and Stone Temple Pilots. We will need to build a wall around this memory town to protect younger generations.
- Columnist Lindsay Zoladz chronicles the intergenerational battle between Boomers and Millennials as told through literary fiction. As she points out, this showdown isn’t ending anytime soon: “Given that [Boomers] are a generation that has never done anything quietly or subtly, they still seem to have some rage to get out of their systems before going into that good night.” (The Ringer)
- NH: This essay is occasioned by a new Millennial-authored novel, Boomer1, which is (perhaps) a bit overfilled with Millennial stereotypes: a frustrated guy living in parent's basement; a happier and more achievement-oriented girlfriend whose life is actually going somewhere; and a Boomer mom who wonders what went wrong. If Millennials are forming battalions to wage war on Boomers--something perhaps you can sense in political leanings--you sure don't see it in their living arrangements or in their popular culture. Unlike Boomers in their youth, these kids are simply too amiable. To quote from the essay: "A recurring joke in Boomer1 is how many of its Millennial characters actually like the Grateful Dead."
- Brands like Unilever are encouraging outdoor play with ad campaigns and products designed to get children outside. Given the mounting public concern over the amount of time children spend in front of screens, this strategy looks like a winner. (Cassandra Report)
- NH: According to OnePoll, the average British child spends only 7 hours per week outside--versus twice that long spent inside on video games. We don't call this the Homeland Generation for nothing.
- Millennial women are twice as likely as Millennial men to say they’re “not comfortable” asking for a raise or promotion. Many women fear being seen as overly aggressive if they campaign for themselves at work—a double standard that may partly explain the persistent U.S. gender wage gap. (Visa)
- Just 29% of Gen Xers consider themselves “well-off,” the lowest share of any generation. For Xers, the single most important factor in determining well-being is the ability (or lack thereof) to pay bills on time—a testament to the precarious state of this generation’s finances. (Comet)
- Compared to the overall U.S. workforce, the average gig worker is more likely to be male, Hispanic, under age 30, and making less than $50,000 a year. But he’s not all that invested in gig work’s famed flexibility: If given the chance, 49% of these workers would switch to a full-time position. (Morning Consult)
- NH: Note that Hispanics are hugely over-represented here: They comprise 10% of all workers, but 20% of all gig workers. In "Trendspotting: 7/9/18," we point out that Gen-X gig workers are the most reliant on gig work as their sole source of income--and are most dissatisfied with their current work situation. This article revisits the vexed question of just how big the "gig economy" is. We conclude that it may encompass roughly 30% of all jobs when you include all forms of freelance, part-time, contingent, and agency employment.
DID YOU KNOW?
Let the Good Times Roll. How is the world doing ten years after the start of the global financial crisis? That’s the question at the heart of a new Pew Research Center report, which gauges the economic confidence of citizens worldwide. Unsurprisingly, in each country surveyed, citizens rated their present economic situation as better than their situation in 2009. What’s surprising is the margin of improvement in some countries: Fully 65 percent of U.S. citizens say their country’s economic situation is good today, up 49 percentage points from 2009. (Only Germany improved more, with a 50-point gain.) In fact, economic sentiment is higher today in the United States, European Union, and Japan than at any time going back to 2002. To be sure, citizens are less sunny when it comes to future expectations. In nearly every advanced economy surveyed, most people believe their children will be worse off financially than they themselves are now. Notably, across the board, Millennials are more likely than older adults to say that today’s kids will be better off—a sign of this generation’s optimism.
