Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt transcribed from today's edition of The Macro Show hosted by CEO Keith McCullough. McCullough responds to a subscriber's question about whether we still like the Euro on the short side. Click here to learn more about The Macro Show.
|
Subscriber: Are we getting to a point where it is more difficult to make money shorting the Euro. Are there better places to put on shorts? In the Early Look today it sounds like consensus has caught up a bit to #EuropeSlowing. Keith McCullough: Consensus has caught up a bit that’s for sure. But look at the CFTC futures and options positioning data. The easiest time short the Euro is when everyone else is long it. In April, the Euro was the biggest consensus long position in Macro. That was when we first started to get more aggressive on the short side of the Euro. It doesn’t mean it’s a bad short now. But to your point, we know that after something works from April to December it’s a less contrarian short position. But a less contrarian decision doesn’t mean that something is a less good position. Don’t forget that consensus can be right and remain right for fundamental reasons. I short the Euro at the top end of our Risk Ranges all the time. Now, even though consensus has come my way on #EuropeSlowing, the ECB definitely hasn’t come my way and that’s what they need to do. Let’s go deep and talk about tail risk. Here’s some eye candy. I love it when you ask me a short-term question and I can give you a multi-duration answer. So, on a short-term basis, I’d cover shorts at 1.11 and at 1.14 I’d be a short seller of Euros. Euros remain bearish trend provided that the Euro remains below 1.18 versus the Dollar. What are the odds of the Euro getting above that anytime soon, anytime over the intermediate trend, or any time over the long term. I’d call that low. That’s why the Euro is in the tail risk position. By the way, the Tail risk line is 1.19 versus the dollar. Now, I’m going to show you the rate of change in the core spending population in Europe. The core spending population in an economy is ages 35 to 54 years old. Those are the people that have the most money. They are later in life and engaged in crazy things like marriage, household formation, buying cars, all these kinds of things. The rate of change in this important spending population went to it’s most negative level during the last European crisis in 2011. So today, it’s on it’s way to the most negative territory in European history. And it’s going to stay there. That is a short. You want to talk about our best long-term Tail short position? Short the Euro. That’s why you need to make sure you do all your multi-duration work. |
